Expert: "I do not see the Russia-Iran gas pipeline as a promising project because..."

Russia and Iran have agreed on a gas pipeline route passing through Azerbaijan, according to Russia’s Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov.

The Russian minister stated that the parties are in the final stage of negotiations, and the volumes have already been determined. According to Tsivilyov, Iran’s agreement with Russia’s Gazprom for gas supply via Azerbaijan is currently estimated at over 2 billion cubic meters annually. However, future supplies could increase to 55 billion cubic meters per year.

In June 2024, Gazprom and the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) signed a strategic memorandum for the supply of Russian natural gas to Iran. At that time, no official information was provided about the route or volumes of the planned gas supply.

Iranian media reported that the agreement included gas transportation via the Mozdok-Shirvanovka (Russia-Azerbaijan border) – Hacıqabul – Astara (Azerbaijan-Iran border) – Abadan pipeline. It was noted that the annual capacity of the existing Russia-Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan-Iran gas pipelines is 10 billion cubic meters.

However, Azerbaijan’s gas industry sources told the "Turan" agency that the current operational capacity of the Mozdok-Hacıqabul pipeline within Azerbaijan is 4.5 billion cubic meters per year, and the Azerbaijan-Iran pipeline has a capacity of 2 billion cubic meters annually.

There has been no official response from Baku regarding statements that the pipeline will pass through Azerbaijani territory. Furthermore, the Azerbaijani authorities have not officially confirmed that the pipeline will traverse their land.

Rasim Musabeyov, a member of the National Assembly’s Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, told "Turan" that the pipeline’s passage through Azerbaijani territory cannot be used against the country: "There are no restrictions on this matter. The use of existing pipelines has nothing to do with anyone. Turkey has been using the 'TurkStream' pipeline to transport gas from Russia. No one has raised objections to Turkey over this."

According to Musabeyov, during the Soviet era, there was a gas pipeline from Russia to Azerbaijan capable of transporting 8-10 billion cubic meters of gas annually: "Twenty years ago, Azerbaijan occasionally received 4–5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia. Another pipeline was built during the Shah’s era from Iran to Azerbaijan, with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. It has not been used; it requires repairs, and its compressors need to be replaced. However, in any case, 2 billion cubic meters could be transported from Russia to Azerbaijan and then from Azerbaijan to Iran."

Musabeyov considers the possibility of transporting 50 billion cubic meters via this scheme unrealistic: "This level of infrastructure does not exist on Azerbaijan’s side. Who will build it, and when, is uncertain and speculative. However, with existing pipelines, 2–3 billion cubic meters could be transported, and after repairs, up to 5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas could be transported through Azerbaijan to Iran. This is similar to how Turkmen gas reaches Azerbaijan through Iran."

The committee member emphasized that this arrangement involves transit fees, which Azerbaijan could benefit from.

Political analyst Arestun Oruclu told Radio Azadliq that while Russia has issued statements about the pipeline, Azerbaijan has not reacted: "Therefore, whether the pipeline will actually be built is a question. And if it is built, what will happen?"

In Oruclu’s view, Azerbaijan does not need to participate in this project: "Azerbaijan has invested in and joined projects like TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline) and TANAP (Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline) to export its gas to Europe. Even these projects are not operating at full capacity due to issues with gas production. If Azerbaijan can export its gas through its own pipelines, why should it join the Russia-Iran gas pipeline? Participating in this project would bring no benefit to Azerbaijan."

Oruclu further argued that the project could harm Azerbaijan: "It is clear that Azerbaijan would face sanctions. The return of Trump to power will not change this; he will not lift sanctions on Russia or Iran. If Azerbaijan joins such projects, it will inevitably face sanctions."

Economist Zöhrab Ismayil highlighted that both Russia and Iran are gas producers with ample reserves: "In this case, the question arises: why are they building such a pipeline? Most likely, because Iran is unable to supply gas to its northern regions, Russia will sell gas to it. Russia seeks to exploit Iran’s lack of financial resources to dominate its gas market."

The expert noted that if Azerbaijan allows the pipeline to pass through its territory, it can collect transit fees: "But the question remains: does Azerbaijan know about this? Has it been agreed upon? Azerbaijan has its own interests. If Russia has such a plan, Azerbaijan could alternatively ensure the supply of Turkmen gas through a route under the Caspian Sea. I do not see the Russia-Iran gas pipeline as a promising project because of sanctions—both Russia and Iran are under sanctions."

According to Ismayil, Azerbaijan is also a gas exporter and can address the issue independently: "One option is selling gas at high prices to Europe, while another is selling gas cheaply to Iran, which may not be profitable for Azerbaijan. Russia might pursue this project for geopolitical reasons, but achieving a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters is unrealistic. Iran has sufficient gas reserves and does not need to purchase such volumes."

The economist emphasized that Europe currently buys only minimal amounts of gas from Russia and is seeking alternative ways to eliminate reliance on Russian gas: "That is why Russia wants to sell gas to Iran. However, in large volumes, this is unrealistic. Therefore, this pipeline is more about propaganda and reflects regional geopolitical interests."