French intrigues in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict

The recommendatory Resolution of the French Senate, adopted on November 15, in which Azerbaijan is required to immediately liberate the occupied territories of Armenia (?), and which proposed to consider the possibility of confiscating the property of the leaders of Azerbaijan, to impose an embargo on gas and oil supplies, to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, exposed the sharpness of many years of uneven Azerbaijan- French relations.

Paris, on the one hand, preaches the idea of ​​appeasing the South Caucasus, acts as an impartial co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh, preaches European values ​​as an important element in the development of democracy in the Caucasian countries, and on the other hand, does not hide its open sympathy for the Armenians, which at the same time , not without reason, calls into question the image of a balanced partner in the eyes of Baku.

This is not the first anti-Azerbaijani resolution of the French Senate. Two years ago, with a difference of 10 days, on November 25, 2020, the French Senate voted for a resolution recommending the diplomatic recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh to the authorities. This happened 15 days after the capitulation of Armenia, the complete defeat of the occupying forces of which was saved by the intervention of Russia, which once again sent its troops to help the Armenians.

Last time, the number of those who voted "for" in the Senate was higher - 297 against the current 295, and in both cases with one abstention. But what makes the two resolutions even more different is that the 2020 document contained serious accusations against Turkey, highlighting the tandem cooperation between Baku and Ankara, and calling for both to be punished. This time, the senators bypassed Turkey, which was most likely due to the dominant mediating role of Ankara in the Russian-Ukrainian war, which today is the number one issue in the European security coordinate system.

That is, we can say that the emotions expressed in the resolution on Azerbaijan are not irresponsible actions, but are balanced and thoughtful in the style of "separating the wheat from the chaff." To speak out against Turkey in the conditions of the global European crisis would mean to jeopardize the authority of France itself, which the French legislators most likely considered suicidal for themselves.

The experience of two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War allows us to speak of France's Caucasian policy as containing elements of deterrence aimed at maintaining the balance of power. In this case, Paris, as in the case of the threat of the complete defeat of the demoralized Armenia in 2020, is trying to restrain Azerbaijan, which maintains a strategic initiative and with ready force to ensure the implementation by Armenia of the terms of the peace treaty (Statements of November 10, 2020), from the implementation of which Yerevan during two years dodges.

The resolution of the Senate of 2020 did not find its continuation in the foreign policy of the French executive branch headed by President Macron, who only took advantage of the moral decision of the upper parliamentary board to maintain the confidence of the Armenian community, which had lost its bearings. He succeeded to a certain extent. Despite the indecently sharp attacks against Azerbaijan, every time after President Aliyev carried out a local military operation to force Armenia to peace, the French President still managed to act as a proxy for the Armenians in the negotiation process, in particular, in organizing the Prague meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan on October 6 , crowned with another step towards peace, which suits the Azerbaijanis quite well.

This conclusion is supported by a phone call Macron made to Aliyev on November 12, three days before the notorious action in the Senate. During the conversation, he spoke about the upcoming meeting with Pashinyan on November 19 at the 18th Summit of the Organization of La Francophonie in Tunisia and examined Aliyev for adherence to the Prague agreements.

The Azerbaijani counterpart noted the importance of Paris demonstrating a neutral, impartial and balanced approach in the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Aliyev brought to the attention of Macron the statements voiced in recent days by Armenia, which contradict the normalization of relations between the two countries and the peace agenda.

In turn, the message of the Elysee Palace notes that Macron welcomed "the stabilizing effect of the European Union's civilian mission along the border with Azerbaijan, the decision to deploy which was made at the Prague summit."

Macron reaffirmed France's full readiness to "support the process of normalizing relations between the two Azerbaijan and Armenia and seek a political solution in the region that will establish peace on a solid basis."

Thus, we can state that the French foreign policy kitchen regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remains true to its tradition and will not upset the balance of ingredients during the peacekeeping process.