Former Minister of Internal Affairs of Turkey: "Iran`s demographic structure is open to chaotic situations"

The spring of 2026 is gradually turning the Caspian region into another frontline of global confrontation. While the world’s attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the Gaza Strip and the war in Ukraine, increasing signs indicate that a new geopolitical tension is forming further north — between Iran, Russia, the United States, Israel and the countries of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is unexpectedly finding itself at the center of this troubling configuration.

Only a few months ago, the Iranian authorities presented the Strait of Hormuz as their main instrument of strategic pressure against the West. Nearly one fifth of global oil trade passes through this narrow maritime corridor, and Tehran long assumed that the threat of closing it could deter the United States and its allies from direct confrontation.

When Trump announced the decision, global markets interpreted it as more than a tactical pause. For many observers, the move signaled a deeper strategic shift: Washington, while demonstrating readiness to apply military pressure on Iran, is simultaneously trying to avoid a war whose consequences could extend far beyond the Middle East.

Amid rising risks of escalation around Iran and across the wider Middle East, a less visible but strategically significant dynamic is taking shape. Azerbaijan — a country traditionally associated with energy and geopolitical balancing — is gradually emerging in a new role: that of a humanitarian transit hub.