From regional non-allyship to the internal market of politics

There is no dark spot in the scene: a ceasefire agreement will be signed as soon as the Israeli ground operation, barring a miracle, reaches its goal in the first half of January.

As it has been for years, Egypt is again in the leading role, and the difference from previous years is that this time Qatar has become active and played the given roles skillfully. Ankara, which hit the ball very sharply at the beginning of the events (President Erdoğan was able to attract exactly 1.5 million people to the rally in Istanbul on October 28, 1 day before the 100th anniversary of the republic), lowered his tone as the days went by. And in the processes that have been going on since October 7, even the microscope is not enough to see any fact written in the Turkish income section.

The current question is this: if political Islam could not use the "Palestinian ball" at its feet even at the time of its strongest power, does it have any choice other than focusing on domestic politics? No, it doesn't have, and the market of domestic politics will heat up after the announcement of the mayoral candidates at the beginning of January.

At the peak of his half-century political career, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's giving so much importance to the municipal election will surely be on to the world politics. As the excitement of Mr. Erdoğan, who was a candidate for the presidency of the municipality of Istanbul exactly 30 years ago, at that time came before my eyes, I can better analyze how Turkey's democracy has developed thanks to the work of local self-government bodies. Erdoğan, the current strongest figure in Turkish politics, is hesitant to nominate a candidate due to the excitement of winning the Istanbul municipal election again. We have written several times before: it may seem very ambitious, but the defeat of the Istanbul municipal election, which the AKP leader and President Erdoğan will put all his strength into, will be more difficult for him than losing the presidential election. Therefore, it is necessary to correctly read the statement of political observers that "the election in Istanbul will be between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu".

Of course, this situation harms Turkey's democracy. How many times will Mr. Erdoğan, who uses not only the position of the party leadership but also all the opportunities provided by the power of the president, start an all-in war against the candidate of the opposition? In fact, he knows very well that in the current situation, by giving secret instructions to the court, finalizing the punishments of Ekrem İmamoğlu can lead to the boycott of the election.

On the other hand, for example, in February or March, İmamoğlu's exclusion from the marathon and ban on his political activities will be a factor working in İmamoğlu's favor in the near future. In other words, if Erdoğan, who was removed from office in March 1999 and faced with political ban, today inflicts the same fate on Ekrem İmamoğlu, it will be nothing more than stepping into the water flowing from the same place for the second time.

When we look at the processes from İmamoğlu's front, he is not only a politician but also a person who claims to rule the state. The cancellation of his mandate after being elected to the Istanbul municipality, and then his election with a huge margin, was to a certain extent the reaction of the voters to the wrong step taken by an experienced politician like Tayyip Erdoğan.

The whole of Turkey has seen in these 4.5 years that Ekrem İmamoğlu, who responded to all the threats and intimidations of the former Minister of Internal Affairs, Süleyman Soylu in his own style, has not only been an administrator who thought of the Istanbul municipality, but at the same time, he first designed the main opposition party and then became a candidate for the chairmanship and then the presidency. Therefore, the municipal election on March 31 will have a serious impact on the situation of Ekrem İmamoğlu as the mayor of the Istanbul municipality, as well as the chairman of the main opposition Republican People's Party.

From this point of view, the political future of Özgür Özel, who preferred to engage in very sharp polemics with the AKP leader and President Erdoğan, starting from the day he was elected as the chairman of the party, will not be an exception. Never mind that the opposition forces going to the elections on May 14/28 as a bloc are divided most of the time due to IYI Party leader Meral Akşener’s inability to see her hand in front of her face and sometimes due to her senseless stubbornness. The policy followed by the main opposition party and Ekrem İmamoğlu will either rejoin Akşener in the ranks of the alliance, or most of the members and supporters of the IYI Party will not listen to Akşener’s words and support the main opposition party and the political institutions that are ready for a new alliance with it.

The process unfolding in this way will lead to the removal of the IYI Party from the Turkish political scene. Therefore, do not look down on the "municipal election". The next March 31 can overturn all the stones in Turkish politics. Of course, we mean the losers.

And all without deciding between power and opposition.

By the way, it seems that there should have been a municipal election in Azerbaijan in December?!