Neck and neck with a political purpose

In a recent development, Turkey's opposition has altered its strategy ahead of the second round of the presidential election, following President Erdoğan's failure to secure victory in the initial round. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), recognized that responding to the ruling bloc's accusations of "cooperation with terrorists" with symbolic gestures was not sufficient. Consequently, he swiftly changed his approach and adopted a more assertive stance, stating that he would expel refugees from the country and refuse negotiations with terrorist organizations. The decision to modify tactics was influenced by an analysis of the first round, which revealed the concern that many CHP members and supporters did not participate in the elections.

Recognizing that the decisive factor in the second round, scheduled for May 28, would be the engagement of those who abstained from voting, the opposition bloc initiated a door-to-door campaign to persuade them to participate. Meral Akşener, the leader of the "alliance of nations," aptly characterized the upcoming second round as a referendum on Turkey's future. Her intention was to alert voters and foster stronger unity among the opposition.

Akşener's description of the second round as a referendum holds weight from several perspectives. Firstly, despite the optimistic rhetoric, the situation on the eve of May 28 does not appear promising for the opposition candidate, as detailed analyses indicate. According to football commentator Erman Toroglu, the opposition should not have relied too heavily on certain strategies, just as Erdoğan did not require excessive tactics to secure his position.

Furthermore, Akşener's reference to a referendum reflects the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been inching closer to his goals throughout his five-decade political career. Currently regarded as one of the most influential figures in global political Islam, Erdoğan has never concealed his aspirations. His sincerity has resonated not only with his supporters but also with Turkey as a whole and the Sunni Muslim world, which considers him a leader. It is only natural to anticipate that a political leader driven to establish an Islamic regime would relentlessly exploit every opportunity to win elections as he approaches his long-sought objective. Following another victory, Erdoğan would view himself as justified in transforming the country's political regime.

Additionally, the current state of the country necessitates a certain course of action for Erdoğan. With only 10% of the population experiencing prosperity, around 60% relying on social assistance, and 30% living below the poverty line, the economic indicators are in disarray. Internal resources for economic stabilization are depleted, and borrowing from external sources has become exceedingly challenging. In this context, advocating for regime change while dismissing the belief that at least half of the population would oppose it seems convenient. Erdoğan would expect widespread support for an Islamic regime, given the infrastructure he meticulously constructed during his 21-year rule. Countless individuals, tied to food aid, reliant on regular ATM withdrawals, or grateful for their pensions, are unlikely to resist such a change.

In my own perspective, I must express my skepticism regarding the potential for a favorable response from the public to Meral Akşener's warning on the "referendum." The late leader of Turkish political Islamists, Necmettin Erbakan, once referred to AKP supporters as "drugged masses." It is now evident that the influence of O'arkoz has further intensified, particularly with the election of Erbakan's son as a member of parliament from the AKP's roster. The emergence of a party hostile to the principles of the secular republic (Hüda Par), which advocates for the complete eradication of women's rights, only strengthens the perception that an Islamic regime is on the horizon.

Given these circumstances, it is crucial to keep a close watch on the inauguration ceremony in Parliament while awaiting the second round of the presidential election. However, it remains uncertain whether Mr. Erdoğan will permit the inauguration ceremony to proceed until the second round takes place.