“Rapprochement with Iran is a result of the aggravation of relations with the West"

The announcement that on June 12, the Azerbaijani and Iranian armies will simultaneously conduct tactical exercises on the border with Nakhchivan raises many questions.  Because relations between the two countries have been tense in recent years. After the 44-day war in 2020, the Iranian military issued a statement against Azerbaijan and threatened Baku.  Azerbaijan, in response to Iran's military exercises, brought special task forces to the border.

On the eve of mutual accusations, an armed attack was carried out on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, and the embassy's activities were suspended by the decision of official Baku. Following this, mutual accusations were launched in the official and unofficial propaganda media of both countries and arrests of believers began in Azerbaijan.

During this period, Azerbaijani student Farid Safarli was also arrested in Iran on charges of espionage. What has changed in the policy of the two countries that they are now conducting joint tactical exercises?

Ex-diplomat Nahid Jafarov answers these and other questions from ASTNA.

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Question: Official reports about the simultaneous tactical exercises by the Azerbaijani and Iranian armies on the border with Nakhchivan have caused surprise. Relations between the two countries have been tense in recent years. What's happening? Has the ice between the two countries melted?

Answer: The warming that is being felt in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations is not accidental at all. There are several nuances governing relations between the two countries, and with the activation of one or more of these nuances, the dynamics of interstate relations changes. The factors positively influencing the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are mainly the following:

a. Authoritarian governance in Azerbaijan - authoritarian governance directly affects the living conditions of people in the country, and as a result, Iran plays the role of a center of education and health for many. It also increases the attractiveness of the Iranian religious regime for the Azerbaijani population. At the same time, the importance of the independent Azerbaijan model for the Turkic population of Iran is decreasing.

b. The negative attitude of the political leadership of Azerbaijan to such ideologies as liberalism and nationalism also has a positive effect on the dynamics of bilateral relations.

A factor negatively affecting relations is the repression carried out by the political authorities against well-known believers who are adherents of the Shiite Tariqa.  It is this factor that has become one of the main causes of tension in recent years.

From time to time, one or another of these factors becomes more active and this affects political relations.

Question: What has changed in the politics of the two countries, for what reason have mutual accusations and threats replaced constructive negotiations?

Answer: Against the background of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations and the Russian-Ukrainian war, Azerbaijan's relations with the West have become extremely tense. The day before, Ilham Aliyev also expressed his opinion on the independence of the Palestinian state, which could lead to an aggravation of relations with Israel, Iran's sworn enemy. On the other hand, Armenia is persistent in attracting the West to the region.  All this gives reason to believe that Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia are strengthening cooperation in order to keep the West out of the region.

Question: The change in relations between the two countries in a positive direction coincided with the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien to Armenia. Isn't this step by Iran a message to Armenia and the West?

Answer: Russia's defeat in Ukraine may become a matter of life and death for the clerical regime in Iran and the government of Ilham Aliyev. If Russia is defeated, it may be forced to leave the Caucasus, and as a result, democratic processes in the South Caucasus may gain even wider scope. It goes without saying that the Iranian mullocracy seeks to prevent the West from entering the region and wants to demonstrate its willingness to use all possible means to do so. And that's exactly the message. 

Question: The rapprochement with Iran coincided with the aggravation of Azerbaijan's relations with the West. Can rapprochement with Iran be a message for Azerbaijan to the West?

Answer: The rapprochement of relations between the two countries is a result, not a message.  This is a consequence of the aggravation of relations with the West.

Question: The son of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu shared a map of Kurdistan. And on this map, along with Iran and Türkiye, part of the lands of Azerbaijan was shown as the territory of "Kurdistan". Can this rapprochement be considered official Baku's response to Israel?

Answer: Apparently, the contours of Azerbaijan's foreign policy have been determined in Moscow in recent days. The aggravation of Azerbaijan's relations with the West and the protection of Palestine also correspond to the foreign policy pursued by Russia, or rather by Putin, and not by Azerbaijan. The proposal to warm relations with Iran may also come from Russia.

Question: What will the improvement of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in general give us? Is this for the benefit or harm of the two countries, especially Azerbaijan?

Answer: The aggravation of relations with any country does not bode well. Normalization of relations is a positive phenomenon. But the issues in the background of this warming are of interest.  If the reason for Azerbaijan's rapprochement with Iran, as already mentioned, is the aggravation of relations with the West, then it does not promise us any positive dividends.