Softening inside, but what about outside?

The meeting with the main opposition leader not at the presidential palace, but at the headquarters of the ruling party (no, don't let this situation remind you of the words "I beat the journalist not like the Minister of Internal Affairs, but like Isgandar") showed the difficult situation faced by the most experienced personality of Turkish politics and state administration.

In the following days, the main opposition leader Özel, then the leader of the ruling party and the head of state Erdoğan commented on the 1 hour and 35 minutes meeting on May 2.

The common opinion was "the beginning of a softening period in politics". Political commentators who analyze this situation from the perspective of the interests of both the ruling party and the main opposition party say that the head of state Erdoğan actually intends to create chaos in the main opposition party, and the main purpose of these meetings is to put the name of Özgür Özel in the foreground, putting Ankara's mayor Mansur Yavaş and Istanbul's mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in the background, whose names are most frequently mentioned for candidacy in the presidential election to be held early or on time; in other words, to create division in the main opposition party in this way.

These are tactics that exist in democratic multiparty systems and should never be alienated. Although the fact that Mr. Erdoğan, who has made it a tradition to attack the main opposition party in the courtyard of the mosque every week after Friday prayers for years, changed his style and talked about "softening in politics" last week is one of the concrete indicators of the March 31 defeat, the only factor that can cause it to continue for a long time is the poor state of the economy. It is so poor that the government, which is having trouble finding hot money at home and abroad, can even offer to build a coalition with the main opposition party, on which it rained merciless words until March 31 - political commentators do not exclude this either.

Rumors that the government, which has failed to improve the economic situation even a little in 11 months, is preparing to implement a policy of tightening the belt, just reducing inflation will be considered heroic, putting aside preventing it while getting goosebumps of citizens living on the minimum wage.

If the government, which is expected to take a breather from tourism revenues in the summer months (although there is hope that Russian tourists will turn to Asia), does not succeed significantly in normalizing macroeconomic indicators, public pressure for an early election may begin in October at the latest.

The only factor that can prevent these pressures will be a coalition government with the main opposition party and the strong support of the public. If the situation comes to that point, if the ruling party does not act sincerely, Turkey can be dragged into great chaos.

It is inevitable that a central power that has suffered a heavy defeat in the election will lose its power in foreign policy as well. Ankara did not play any role in the failed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas when the head of state's visit to Washington, scheduled for May 9, was canceled.

It is clear that these steps of Ankara, which has repeatedly canceled trade agreements in recent days, will harm Israel's economy to some extent. Can Ataklı, the writer of "Korkusuz" newspaper, which brought up the canceled agreements, draws attention to this point: "Israel buys the main part of the oil it needs from Azerbaijan, and the oil is sent through a pipeline passing through the territory of Turkey. That is, although not directly, Turkey mediates, and for some reason, Erdoğan does not think it necessary to warn Aliyev, who is known as his closest friend.”

However, the fact that even the United States could not prevent the advance of the operation organized by Israel to the city of Rafah on the border with Egypt in the Gaza Strip narrowed Ankara's room for maneuvers even more.

After the serious warnings of the United States, other big companies, along with Turkish banks, which limit cooperation relations with the Russian banking system every day, are drinking water by blowing it.

The Russian head of state wanted to come to Turkey in February, but there is still no visible news in the diary about the trip being postponed to April or May "because of the election". Relations with Russia are at the top of the issues where Ankara may have serious problems with its allies in the West.

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