Tightening the belt to afford cabbage

Seymour Hersh recently made a claim suggesting that Turkey requested a loan of $11-$13 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in exchange for Sweden's support for NATO membership. This claim should be taken seriously, considering Hersh's credibility as a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist known for his reliable sources and investigative work. Moreover, given Turkey's current financial struggles, it is not surprising that they would be exploring various avenues to secure urgent funds. In fact, the Turkish President has reached out to wealthy Arab countries in search of financial support.

While it is unlikely that Sweden's NATO membership hinged solely on an IMF loan, Turkey's President skillfully utilized this situation to his advantage in domestic politics. Additionally, he engaged in substantive discussions with the US President. However, as the urgency for immediate funds takes precedence, these political matters have taken a back seat. The President's recent trip to the Gulf countries, aimed at securing money through loans, direct investments, or other means, has overshadowed other pressing issues.

The economic crisis in Turkey is unprecedented, affecting various sectors of the economy. The rising fuel prices, along with an increase of 1% in the cost of tea (a staple consumer product), have contributed to inflationary pressures. The government's decision to raise the Value Added Tax by 2%, coupled with the exclusion of approximately 11 million pensioners from recent increases, has further exacerbated societal challenges. Criticism from the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, who traditionally supports the government, led to a meeting between the President and the party leader.

In the absence of new legislation for wage and pension increases, the President has resorted to issuing decrees for these adjustments. It has been noted previously that the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan is more effective than that of the Central Bank of Turkey. Therefore, it raises the question of whether Turkey's President can attract investment from wealthy Gulf countries or if the Treasury and Finance Minister have specific plans in place. Alternatively, the President may seek to boost the economy temporarily by selling state-owned companies and banks to Gulf countries through the Asset Fund, which he oversees.

If the IMF agrees to provide a loan of $11-$13 billion, what collateral will they request? Will the government accept the need for financial discipline, potentially leading to an austerity policy? While the government may comply with certain demands, it remains uncertain whether they will fully embrace an austerity policy. The reasons for this hesitation are apparent and do not require further elaboration. However, it is worth noting that the government, which once claimed to have no debt to the IMF and even considered lending to them, is now compromising on a previously principled stance (Sweden's NATO membership). The changing positions of certain politicians have gone unquestioned by a significant portion of the public, or perhaps they simply do not care.

In conclusion, one can draw a parallel to an Icelandic saga where, in response to the exclamation "there is no God," someone calmly asks, "Is there cabbage?" This query signifies that the presence or absence of cabbage is a matter of survival.

P.S. I was also shocked by the sudden death of my precious friend Raphael Sade, who provided excellent comments to the Turan and ASTNA news agency from Tel Aviv. I ask God's mercy for Raphael, who left us prematurely, and patience for his family.