When the bus departs...

At that time, we wrote that the second tectonic break in political Islam after Tunisia took place in the municipal elections held in Turkey on March 31, 2019. It was known that the transfer of 11 metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, to the bloc led by the main opposition party would destabilize the central government, and it was not possible for the central government to bounce back, as there was no surprise.

Although Mr. Erdoğan, who is the founder of the 21-year-old ruling party and the current state, managed to raise the rating of his party and himself in public opinion polls to a certain extent since the fall of last year, announcing several projects in the field of economy, including natural gas in the Black Sea, and increasing the minimum wage by 55%, these increase has slowed since the beginning of this year. As all calculations are based on the parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in May or June, the mouths of wallets would be opened to the end on the eve of the elections.

However, the February 6 earthquake was the strongest blow to the government in 20 years. While the opposition, which has not only increased its dynamism but also strengthened its consolidation in recent years, appeared much earlier than the central government in the earthquake regions, especially through the municipalities under its control, things reached the fact that President Erdoğan asked for the blessings of the citizens in Adiyaman.

Turkey's most experienced politician and statesman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, saw that the earthquake disaster had a negative effect on the ratings, while "indexing" the government completely to the earthquake, the opposition bloc accelerated the exercises to identify its candidate. And... although it was a surprise for many, Meral Akşener, an actress of Turkish politics whom I have known for years, announced on March 3 that she was walking away from the table where 6 parties gathered, putting forward absurd conditions.

This act, which is a clear example of kamikaze, was actually an echo of the fact that after the Cold War, "Turkish nationalism" could not define itself in any infrastructure in the political arena and was deprived of the ability to read the developments in the world. This group, which is still trying to carry out politics by keeping the concepts and worldview of the 1970s in circulation, realized that it would receive a heavy blow from the voters, and in two nights, on March 6, Meral Akşener was sent back to the table. After this meeting, the

Kurdish-leaning party announced that it would support the main opposition leader, and the processes completed each other, and on May 22, 2010, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was elected as the leader of the Republican People's Party at the congress that I watched standing for 11 hours, was announced as the single candidate for the presidency of the Turkish opposition bloc.

And do you know by whom? By Temel Karamollaoğlu, the leader of the Felicity Party, the opposition wing of political Islam. The meeting of the guardians of secularism and the Shariatists under the same umbrella was so significant as the fact that Akşener's nationalists and Demirtaş's Kurdish leanings fall under the same roof so that it added strength to the power of Turkey (I remembered how Sabir Rustamkhanli and Tural Abbasli threw fish into the Hakari river within the framework of the government-opposition dialogue, and I was moved to tears). When the election is still more than 2 months away, the support of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by the masses belonging to such different political worldviews in the form of institutions shows this result in minimal mathematical calculations:

People's Republic Party - 25%, IYI Party - 10%, HDP - 10%, Workers' Party, which is currently the most dynamic wing of Turkish politics and represented by 4 MPs in the parliament, and the left alliance - 3%, the Future Party of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and the DEVA Party of former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan - 5%. As can be seen from the figures, even if the votes of the undecided voters are not added, the probability that the single candidate of the opposition will be elected in the first round of the election is very strong.

With a maximum rating of 37-38%, it is not yet known what tactical moves Mr. Erdoğan will prefer against this consolidation of the opposition, with none other than Devlet Bahçeli's MHP, which will not exceed 7% (Believing that the Great Unity Party with 70-80 thousand votes and Doğu Perinçek's Patriotic Party with 50-60 thousand votes will affect the ratings is nothing but naive).

And I do not rule out that Mr. Erdoğan can take a strategic step rather than a tactical one. How? If Mr. Erdoğan, who has won all the elections he participated in so far, is absolutely sure that he will not be elected president in this election, he will not run for the presidency, but will run for parliament and will work for the AKP to gain a large majority in the parliament.

I will write the continuation after Mr. Erdoğan decides to run for the presidency...