Belarus Holds Presidential Election

Belarus is conducting its presidential elections today, with incumbent Alexander Lukashenko widely expected to secure a seventh consecutive term, analysts say. Lukashenko’s primary challengers are viewed as technical candidates, while genuine opposition figures remain incarcerated or have fled the country.

Early voting on January 24 saw a turnout exceeding 27%, escalating to nearly 50% by Sunday morning. In response, state media reported that government employees were barred from taking vacations and mandated to participate fully in the electoral process.

The European Parliament, several European Union member states, and the United States have already declared they will not recognize the election results, citing concerns over fairness and legitimacy.

The current electoral atmosphere in Belarus starkly contrasts with the 2020 elections, which were marred by mass protests, widespread detentions, and the imprisonment or exile of key opposition leaders. Back then, Lukashenko claimed 80.1% of the vote, a result dismissed by Western nations amid numerous reports of electoral fraud.

Today’s elections lack any significant pre-election competition. Sergei Syrankov, the Communist Party candidate, openly endorsed Lukashenko, who publicly thanked him for his support. Similarly, other candidates—including Oleg Gaidukevich of the Liberal Democratic Party, Alexander Khizhniak of the Labor Party, and entrepreneur Anna Kanopatskaya—have not positioned themselves against the current president.

Independent newspaper Zerkalo reported that government employees are prohibited from taking leave, and medical staff have been instructed to ensure all patients, including those in critical condition, are registered to vote, even if unconscious.

Election observers will primarily consist of representatives from CIS countries allied with Belarus. The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Belarus claims that 17 observers from Western nations will attend in a personal capacity.

By 10 a.m. Minsk time, the CEC reported voter turnout approaching 50%. State-controlled media are promoting the narrative that Lukashenko maintains power not through coercion but by emphasizing national unity in the face of global tensions, suggesting a need to avoid involvement in potential World War III scenarios.

Throughout 2024, Lukashenko pardoned 293 individuals convicted of political crimes, though prominent opposition leaders like Viktor Babariko and Maria Kolesnikova remain imprisoned. Concurrently, the government has labeled additional figures, including comedian Slava Komissarenko, as "terrorists and extremists."

Political rhetoric from Lukashenko has increasingly focused on an alleged external threat seeking to annex parts of Belarus and Russia, a strategy analysts believe bolsters his position.

Political analyst Ryhor Astapenya told BBC that public fatigue with Lukashenko persists, with citizens desiring political reforms and better living standards. "There is a sense of stagnation under Lukashenko. Now changes are impossible, and it demotivates people, no one wants to participate in anything," Astapenya stated.

Belarusian lawyer Ilya Salei predicts that Lukashenko will prioritize personal security and power retention in his next term, potentially seeking to diversify risks by engaging with Western nations and participating in negotiations concerning Ukraine.