Eyes are on the last party of parliament

After the transition to presidential rule, by locking in the system of unconditional support provided by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), it tied the hands of the AKP, the major ally of the government, on some vital issues that will determine the fate of the country.

While the support of voters of Kurdish origin is crucial for the government, it seems certain that citizens of Kurdish origin who support secularism (the electorate that AKP supporters call "Marxists") will not vote for the AKP.

The secret collaboration of the Kurdish People's Democratic Party with the main opposition party in the municipal elections two years ago (especially in the repeat elections in Istanbul) forced the ruling coalition to knock on the door of the lowest-rated political institutions (make no mistake, this is not what Adalat Valiyev is trying to design).

In the current situation, while the major ally of the government is taking steps to revive the excitement of the days when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994 with 25.6% of the vote, the target of the minor ally of the government, MHP, is the IYI (Good) Party, which has “come out of its arms”.

Yes, those who have been following Turkish politics know very well that IYI Party leader Meral Akşener was a member of the center-right-wing True Path Party (DYP) in the 1990s, that although she was among the founding members of the AKP in 2001, she later left and joined the MHP, that when the MHP was out of parliament (November 2002 - July 2007), she was a deputy of the Devlet Bahçeli, that as soon as the MHP returned to the parliament, she was the vice-speaker of the MHP contingent for 8 years, and that she was not re-nominated from the MHP in 2015. In other words, there are very few politicians in Turkey who know each other better than Devlet Bahçeli and Meral Akşener. After Devlet Bahçeli blocked convening an emergency congress with a court decision although enough signatures were collected to do it, if the political body headed by Akşener, who founded the IYI Party, is in parliament today, this is strictly due to the main opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

After Akşener's IYI Party, which received 10% of the vote in the June 24, 2018, presidential election, entered the parliament with a clever maneuver of the Republican People's Party (CHP) on the eve of the election, this opposition bloc also acted together in the municipal elections held on March 31, 2019, and achieved great success.

Given the nature of politics in a democratic environment, Akşener's IYI party is currently at a crucial juncture in determining Turkey's future. Aware of this, the head of state and the leader of the minor partner of the government are conducting tactical maneuvers for the respectable Akşener with the philosophy of "one step forward two steps back". For example, one day you see that Devlet Bahçeli calls on Akşener and his men to return to the MHP, whom he calls "local and national", and the next day he does not hesitate to declare the same Akşener "Cevriye the Phosphorus". Furthermore, one day Mr. Erdoğan calls Akşener "local and national" and threatened her with arrest the next day, tagging her as a FETÖ member.

Whether these maneuvers, which have already exceeded all ethical boundaries, will obtain a result will be determined not only by Akşener but also by the group headed by Koray Aydın, who is passionate about the government's proposals (without exposing it, of course) and the radical nationalist class headed by Yavuz Ağıralioğlu. In other words, it will not be surprising to see Meral Akşener, who is resisting all forms of pressure today, in the ruling bloc tomorrow.

Of course, not only the pressure from the ruling bloc on the IYI Party, which has become the locking party of the opposition alliance, and directly on Meral Akşener but also the fact that the expectations of the center-right voters, who currently feel empty, from Ms. Meral did not materialize will also play an important role here.

Although the main expectation from Meral Akşener, who could not make the necessary connections with the economically strong sections of the center-right, except for small shop owners, is to get support by establishing a strong connection with that wing, failure to do so will frustrate hopes and the IYI Party, which remains in a narrow ideological framework, will have no choice but to ally with the government. Therefore, in order to withstand the pressure of the government more strongly, the IYI Party needs to establish a strong dialogue with the center-right wing, which was once represented by Süleyman Demirel, Turgut Özal, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (in the first 10 years of 19 years of power).

Maintaining her resistance to pressures will make Akşener and the IYI Party strong in the opposition bloc, as well as in the history of Turkish democracy.

Mayis Alizade