The headless West may be about to save Putin’s neck

telegraph.co.uk: Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts to provide effective global leadership on the vital issue of support for Ukraine are being somewhat undermined by Downing Street’s inability to provide Kyiv with the game-changing ability to launch attacks deep within Russian territory.

Since taking office, the Starmer Government has gone out of its way to give the impression that it will be business as usual so far as the UK’s backing of Ukraine’s war effort is concerned.

Having declared his “unwavering support” for Ukraine when he visited Kyiv prior to the general election, Starmer sought to burnish his pro-Ukraine credentials by inviting President Volodymyr Zelensky to give a personal address to the Cabinet – the first world leader to do so since Bill Clinton in 1997.

Starmer was at it again earlier this week, when, to mark the 33rd anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, he issued a statement declaring the UK will back their cause “today and always”.

Judging by Zelensky’s more nuanced response, though, it appears the Ukrainian leader has still to be convinced about just how genuine Starmer is when it comes to providing Ukraine with the weaponry it desperately needs to prevail on the battlefield. This would explain Zelensky’s direct appeal to the British Prime Minister last month to “show leadership” in providing tangible support for the Ukrainian cause.

In particular, Zelensky is frustrated at the Prime Minister’s failure to give the go-ahead for Ukraine to use the long-range Storm Shadow missiles, provided by the UK, to attack military targets deep within Russian territory.

The Storm Shadow missile system has become a staple of the British military since it was first deployed by the Royal Air Force during the Iraq war in 2003 against Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guard. With its ability to deliver bunker-busting bombs with precision at long range, Storm Shadow has been used to great effect by the RAF in more recent conflicts, such as Libya and Syria.

For Ukraine, having the ability to use these weapons to strike key military installations within Russia, such as air bases, is vital if Kyiv is to build on the recent success it has achieved in seizing around 500 square miles of territory in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Ukraine’s ability to consolidate, and even expand, the area of Russian territory it now has under its control is contingent on the Ukrainians’ capacity to repel any attempt by Moscow to launch a counter-attack – which means striking military targets deep within Russia.

Concerns about provoking a wider conflict between Russia and the West have been a perennial feature in terms of the willingness of many Western leaders to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to achieve victory.

This has been especially true in Washington, where the Biden administration’s obsession with not provoking Putin into launching further acts of aggression in Europe has greatly hindered Western support for the Ukrainian cause.

Thus, while the UK has been prepared to provide the Ukrainian military with Storm Shadow missiles, strict limitations have been placed on their use against targets within Russia by both the UK and the US.

This explains why, despite Downing Street’s claim this week that the UK has given Kyiv the green light to use Storm Shadows against targets in Russia, doubts remain – especially in Kyiv – that this is actually the case.

Given his previous attempts to portray himself as a staunch backer of the Ukrainian cause, it is politically expedient for Starmer to give the impression that the UK has lifted the restrictions on the missile’s use. The only problem is that, in the Ukraine conflict, any use of the missile is likely to be conducted in conjunction with US military systems, meaning the Americans will have the ultimate say on whether they can or cannot be used against targets within Russia. And so long as the Biden administration remains in power, permission for such strikes is unlikely to be forthcoming.

Starmer himself was evasive about Washington’s ability to limit the use of Storm Shadow when questioned on the subject yesterday during his visit to Berlin to meet Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, insisting he could not get into “tactical questions” about the missiles’ use.

The reality, of course, is that, if Starmer were really serious about allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow properly, he and his ministers would be lobbying Washington to lift its restrictions on their use.

Instead, the uncertainty over whether Ukraine can, or cannot, use the weapons to achieve their military goals against the Russians simply adds to the impression that, under Britain’s new Labour regime, providing effective leadership on the Ukraine issue is no longer one of our Government’s major priorities.

Fortunately for Ukraine, the time may soon come when it will no longer have to rely on Western support to sustain its war effort. Kyiv has just conducted its first successful launch of a domestically produced ballistic missile. It is a development which means Kyiv will soon be able to decide for itself which Russian targets to aim for in its bid to inflict a devastating defeat on the Kremlin.