Ukraine faces 6 GW power supply shortfall this winter, IEA says

Reuters: LONDON (Reuters) - Ukraine's electricity supply shortfall could reach six gigawatts (GW) this winter - about a third of expected peak demand - amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiry of a gas supply contract at the end of this year, the IEA said in a report.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been targeted by Russian attacks, resulting in rolling blackouts and limited electricity supply to some regions for a few hours a day. Ukraine has also attacked energy infrastructure in Russia.

This summer, when electricity demand is usually lower than winter, Ukraine's generation capacity fell by more than two GW below peak demand of 12 GW, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

This winter, peak electricity demand could increase to 18.5 GW. Even when the country's nuclear plants return from maintenance outages and with electricity imports of 1.7 GW from European neighbouring countries, Ukraine's supply deficit could reach six GW, the equivalent of peak annual demand in Denmark.

"Further attacks on infrastructure, unforeseen equipment failures and missed maintenance cycles add further risks," the report said.

Under current circumstances, Ukraine could meet its gas demand needs from domestic production and storage but a colder than average winter would increase the need for imports.

A gas supply transit deal with Russia's Gazprom is due to expire at the end of this year and Ukraine has said it does not wish to extend it. Additional gas supply would have to come from flows to Ukraine from central and eastern Europe.

Another risk is disruption to gas and electricity supply in neighbouring Moldova. Although Moldova no longer relies directly on Russian gas to meet demand on the territory it controls, it receives around two thirds of its electricity from a power plant in the breakaway, Russian-backed region of Transnistria.

Transmission capacity with continental Europe is shared between Ukraine and Moldova. If there are shortages in Moldova, the two countries need to agree to the distribution of imports from other countries, the report said.

To help Ukraine's energy security this winter, the IEA said that repair and construction work must be done to protect assets against further attacks, especially at network substations near nuclear plants.

Domestic energy saving measures, the delivery of more small combined heat and power units to the worst-hit areas, and better transmission of electricity imports were needed.

Ukraine will also need around 0.6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas imports in September and October to reach its gas storage target before Nov. 1.