What is Putin's endgame now?

cbsnews.com:  A little more than five weeks of the war have passed, and one thing is clear how it will end — there will be no surrender.

"I think a negotiated settlement will be reached. But it is clear that there is still a lot of fighting going on, as each side is trying to create conditions that will give it more leverage at the negotiating table," said former CIA director and commander of the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, retired Army General David Petraeus.

He says the Russians have already lost the battle for Kiev: "They will not be able to fulfill what was supposedly their main goal from the very beginning, namely to overthrow the Zelensky government and replace it with a pro-Russian government."

CBS News National Security correspondent David Martin asked: "If the plan to take Kiev has failed, does it mean that the decisive battle of the war has already taken place?"

"Only if Ukraine can prevent another decisive battle from happening again," Petraeus replied. "This may be crucial in the sense that it is dangerous for Ukraine."

The danger now looms in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is strengthening and concentrating its firepower, trying to encircle most of the Ukrainian army. The outcome of the fierce battle for the city of Mariupol could be the key.

/ Credit: CBS News

Petraeus said: "Mariupol has turned into a Ukrainian Alamo, fighting to the last defender, shackling a significant number of Russian battalions and forcing them to pay literally for every block they take."

 "If [Putin] destroyed the Ukrainian army in the east, would the rest of the country be open to him?" asked Martin.

"I don't think so,— he replied. "You are fighting an entire nation. There will be limits on how far they can go, and I don't expect them to go beyond the middle of the country. They would like to get to the very center.

" "Is it possible that Ukrainians will survive?"

"If they can get additional weapons, ammunition, vehicles and so on, absolutely no questions," Petraeus said. "And, of course, they have incredible determination, fortitude, creativity, resourcefulness. They have everything that Russians are not."

President Zelensky, who has proven himself not only as a brilliant communicator, but also as a smart commander-in-chief, says that the war is at a turning point.

Martin asked: "Can you say it will take weeks or months?"

"It could be weeks or it could be months, depending on how severe the damage is," Petraeus said.

— Are you mainly describing a war of attrition?

"There is a war of attrition, and again not only on the battlefield. It is also to some extent between what is happening in Ukraine and what is happening with Moscow and the Russian economy, the financial system and the business community."

And a war between two men, Petraeus said: "Between Vladimir Putin, who cannot seem weak — he must remain strong, infallible, unflappable, controlling, master of everything, and President Zelensky, who leads the country. which is fighting for its very survival."

US officials say that one of them — Putin — is not being told the truth about what is happening on the battlefield.

"How does the war end if the leader is not told the truth?" asked Martin.

"Well, the leader is not stupid," Petraeus said. "He has to acknowledge the reality of what happened.

They didn't achieve what they were aiming for. Deep down, he understands that he has plunged his country into a colossal mistake and demonstrated colossal short-sightedness."

"Will he be punished enough not to try to do something like that again?"

"I do not know if he will think that he has been punished enough," Petraeus replied. "What he will be, we hope, is sufficiently weakened."