Are Armenians being prepared for a Moscow-managed crisis?

Baku/15.02.23/Turan: On February 13, the second in the hierarchy of the Karabakh separatists - "state minister" Ruben Vardanyan held a meeting in Khankendi "with the participation of the leadership of state bodies," the Yerevan resource a1plus.am reported.

Vardanyan delivered an anti-Azerbaijani speech. This confirmed the message of the Azerbaijani media about the return of Vardanyan to Karabakh. On February 7, the Yerevan resource "Hraparak" reported on Vardanyan's departure to Moscow to participate in negotiations with Russian leaders on the future fate of Karabakh. Before him, "president" Harutyunyan went to Moscow with the same task. All these days, Vardanyan did not make statements, although before that he had made radical speeches against Azerbaijan every day. And there is still no public information about his activities in Moscow. According to Eldar Ginesly, an Azerbaijani historian analyzing the events in Karabakh, Vardanyan did not leave Karabakh at all, and the sites in Azerbaijan fell for the information trick of the Armenians. But then it is not clear what is the meaning of deception.

The fact is that regardless of whether Vardanyan left the territory of Azerbaijan in a Russian military truck and returned back, or all this is an Armenian "duck", intense upheavals are taking place in the Karabakh closed political society, the meaning of which in any case matters for Azerbaijan.

Let's start with the fact that, according to Armenian sources, the former "Secretary of the Security Council of Nagorno-Karabakh" Vitaly Balasanyan, who was dismissed in early January, was accused of abuse of power. A criminal case has been opened against him in Khankendi, Pastinfo writes. The case will be referred to the court, materials are being prepared on several more cases, on the basis of which new criminal cases can be initiated.

V. Balasanyan actively and successfully fought against Azerbaijan in the first Karabakh war, in the second he tried to squeeze into the ranks of the Armenian commanders, but he was not allowed to lead the fighting. In Baku, Balasanyan is considered the most suitable separatist for negotiations with Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani press writes. In any case, in several meetings with various officials from Baku, after 2020, Balasanyan took part.

The initiation of a criminal case against this person means excluding her from all future political events within the Karabakh elite and in possible negotiations with official Baku.

The second significant event: accused in Azerbaijan of crimes against the civilian population, the so-called "president of Nagorno-Karabakh" Arayik Harutyunyan initiated the process of amending the "constitution" unrecognized by the world. Moreover, this is happening in the tense days for Karabakh Armenians after the 2020 war, when an environmental picket of Azerbaijanis has been held near Khankendi for more than two months.

According to local politician Artur Harutyunyan, with this change, the authorities want to create an opportunity to manage risks in the event that the presidency becomes vacant during martial law. Martial law has been in force in Karabakh since 1992.

“In the event that the position of the President of the Republic is vacant during martial law, the National Assembly should be empowered to manage risks in the event of a crisis, that is, all this serves this purpose,” the deputy said.

Now, under the existing "constitution", in the event of the resignation of the "president", his death, termination of powers or a vote of no confidence in him, the "parliament" is dissolved, extraordinary "elections of the president and the National Assembly" are held, Harutyunyan explained.

And according to another politician, Vahram Atanesyan, the new version of the "constitution" will avoid a 40-day powerless period if, for some reason, the "president" is unable to perform his duties. The press in Yerevan writes that what is happening is controlled by Pashinyan, who wants to form a government subordinate to him in Karabakh.

The possible mysterious visit of Ruben Vardanyan to Moscow, the repression against Vitaly Balasanyan and the bringing of the separatist government into a mode of readiness to act in a crisis situation indicate that the separatists are preparing for a certain X hour. The crisis will not be inspired from Baku, but created by the separatists, with the support of the Kremlin.

It seems that Khankendi and Moscow are preparing for 2025, when 6 months before the November end of the five-year mission of Russian peacekeepers, President Aliyev will make a decision to withdraw the Russian army from Karabakh. The purpose of the preparation may be to create a manageable crisis in order to force Aliyev to agree to an extension of the RMK in Karabakh.

This is evidenced by the latest initiative of the Armenians. The head of the separatists, Arayik Harutyunyan, issued an order to establish a state commission to organize and coordinate events to celebrate the 35th anniversary of the Karabakh movement, which advocated the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. This means that the Armenian community continues its course towards confrontation and disruption of the peace process.--0--