Avaz Hasanov on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict

Baku / 30.04.19 / Turan: A book by the head of the Society for Humanitarian Studies Avaz Hasanov was published in Baku: "Nagorno-Karabakh: the difficult path of public diplomacy." The author analyzes the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, discusses the mechanisms and ways to solve it, the fate of the internally displaced. Earlier, Hasanov was a member of the International Working Group on the search for prisoners of war, missing persons and hostages. Communication with Armenian leaders and ordinary citizens allows the authors to conclude that the warring parties trust each other, which means not all efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group will bring success. Hasanov is sure that only constant efforts to improve relations between the warring parties is what political leaders need to do. The big politics of a number of countries playing a significant role here is tied to the knot of the Karabakh problem. Iran is a key trade and economic partner of Armenia. It supplies Armenia with fuel, thanks to which Armenia continues to live.

Iran tried to mediate in the elimination of the conflict in May 1992, when an agreement was signed in Tehran to end the war, but the next day the Armenians seized Shusha. Turkey also wants to intensify its role in the Karabakh settlement and implements major energy and transport projects with Azerbaijan and Georgia. For the time being, it is not possible to establish Turkey"s economic ties with Armenia. Especially after the closure of the border with Armenia in 1993, and still does not want to recognize the "Armenian genocide".

Hillary Clinton's visit to the Caucasus in 2012 is nothing more than an attempt by the United States to influence the Karabakh settlement. The current president, Donald Trump, is interested in maintaining stability in the Caucasus region. Azerbaijan hopes that the United States will help in resolving the conflict. Baku makes concessions in matters of democracy and tries to start a dialogue with the opposition and civil society. The EU has no serious mechanisms to influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Therefore, its role here is minimal. Russia, according to the author of the book, is a "frightening" factor, both for Azerbaijan and for Armenia. Any reinforcement of the warring parties to Russia is not necessary and not profitable. Because, it is the status quo that keeps the dependence of Azerbaijan and Armenia on Moscow. When asked by the author when the time of settlement between the warring parties comes, he replies, "I think that according to the most optimistic forecasts in 10-15 years. Even if five regions of Azerbaijan were fully and two partially liberated, as proposed, it would take 12 to restore these lands from mines, restore infrastructure, build 147,000 houses and workers, to return them to these territories and prepare them for return. 15 years".

* Avaz Hasanov has been actively involved in the public life of Azerbaijan since 1997. Since 1995, he has been a member of Amnesty International. From 2000-2007, the national coordinator of the International Working Group on the search for missing persons, hostages and the release of prisoners in the Karabakh conflict zone. In 2009, A. Hasanov was elected the first national coordinator of the Steering Committee of the Civil Society Forum of the Eastern Partnership Program. -0-