Fire leading to conflict

Baku/24.04.21/Turan: On April 22, Azerbaijani border guards serving on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border in Zangilan district were fired upon by Armenian soldiers.

According to the press center of the State Border Service (SBS), Russian border guards serving on the Armenian side said that the provocateurs were drunk. The Azerbaijani side did not retaliate after their request not to react to the incident.

At the same time, on the same day, a group of 30-40 people driving towards the state border in the direction of Shurnukhu village of Gubadli district chanted anti-Azerbaijani slogans in Armenian.

Following these events, the SBS officially stated that the most drastic retaliatory measures will be taken if such provocations are repeated in the future.

Recently, the statements of Armenian officials have also intensified.

Will all this lead to a new conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

On April 24, the website of the Ministry of Defense of Russia said that Russian peacekeepers were monitoring 27 observation posts and that the ceasefire was maintained along the entire line of contact.

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, told Turan that the incident in Zangilan was an expression of defeat in the Armenian army. “Especially, recently, the rhetoric of the Armenian political leadership and revanchist forces has intensified. Thoughts voiced by Nikol Pashinyan on April 18 while he was reporting on 2020 give grounds to come to this conclusion. When you look at those ideas, you get the impression that it is as if Pashinyan has returned to the time when he voiced the absurd idea that "Karabakh is Armenia and the point", as if he did not sign the act of capitulation, and his speech is similar to his speech until September 27 last year,” he said.

The MP believes that Nikol Pashinyan’s speech is connected with the early parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia on June 20. “Speeches on both fronts are mostly addressed to domestic audiences,” he said.

According to E. Nasirov, the remnants of the destroyed Armenian army are experiencing psychological tension. “They were depressed and organized a dinner party, and under the influence of heavy defeat, they tried to violate the ceasefire in the direction of Azerbaijan,” he said.

The committee member stressed that the Azerbaijani side did not react to this after the request of the Russian border guards. “However, if the Armenian side does not draw conclusions, the Azerbaijani side has the right to prevent it at any time, to conduct an anti-terrorist operation. Such an operation has already been carried out once and Armenian saboteurs have been arrested,” he said.

Security expert Ilham Ismayil told RFE / RL that a conflict could arise between Armenia and Azerbaijan. “The situation will worsen. When it comes to shooting in Zangilan, such things will happen from time to time. A similar incident took place at the Shusha post too. Armenians were drunk and attacked the post. Even a French newspaper wrote about it,” he said.

The expert believes that Azerbaijan has not been able to react harshly to the events in Nagorno-Karabakh in official form. “It has been more than five months since the war ended but we still do not see this tough stance. Biden spoke with Erdoğan yesterday and said he would use the word "Armenian genocide". After that, the situation will become a little more complicated and tense,” he said.

According to I. Ismayil, the international situation may not be in the interests of Azerbaijan. “Therefore, we must raise all the issues arising from the November 10 statement and move to offensive diplomacy. We must demand the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh in accordance with the provisions of the statement. Because they have not yet left, on the contrary, they are armed and dig fortifications,” he said.

The expert says that IDPs from Azerbaijan do not return to Nagorno-Karabakh, which creates a problem. “That is why the talks on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh are on the lips of Armenian officials. They are active but we are still silent. We must take decisive action and lay our firm position bare,” he said. —0—