How will situation in Lachin corridor end?

Baku/15.12.22/Turan: The fourth day of blocking the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijani civil society activists near Shusha has begun.

Dozens of activists continue to occupy the road, replacing each other after a few hours. The day before, the participants of the action allowed passage of three cars of Russian peacekeepers transporting humanitarian cargo.

Last night, a large-format screen was installed on the road, where the participants of the action and Russian peacekeepers watched the semi-final of the France-Morocco football match. No excesses or conflicts with peacekeepers have been recorded.

The demands of the Karabakh separatists for the peacekeepers to unblock the road by force remain unheard.

The response to the hysterical appeals to Moscow by the newly-declared separatist leader Ruben Vardanyan was a restrained appeal by the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova that Moscow is "concerned", "actively working on de-escalation of the situation" and "counts on the restoration of transport links."

The appeals of the newly-revealed separatist leader Ruben Vardanyan to the Russian leadership are also ignored by Moscow.

Official Baku makes it clear that the blockade will not be lifted until the illegal mining in Karabakh is stopped.

Besides, the gas supply to the region has not been restored, which is also a signal for the separatists.

As Turan has learned from unofficial sources, further development of the situation is possible under several scenarios: 1) A checkpoint of the Azerbaijani security forces will be installed in the Lachin corridor, 2) Illegal mining operations will be stopped and representatives of Baku will be allowed there, 3) Attempts by the Armenian side to provoke an armed conflict will lead to a military operation to disarm illegal armed formations, as it was in the Farrukh Hill area in March this year.

The calm behavior of the peacekeepers and the absence of a significant reaction from Moscow suggest that any of these three scenarios is quite real and even all of them combined. -02B-