Is it possible for Russia to default?

Russia still accounted for 15% of the EU's total gas imports in 2023, behind Norway and the US at 30% and 19% respectively, and ahead of North African countries at 14%, according to data from the European Commission.

On December 11, 2024, permanent representatives of the European Union (EU) member states approved the 15th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation in Brussels. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the restrictions under this sanction package target a group of tankers known as the “shadow fleet.” The new sanctions will prohibit an additional 52 tankers from accessing EU ports, aiming to curb Russia's “shadow fleet.” These tankers are reportedly used by Russia to bypass restrictions imposed by the G7 and their partners for exporting oil and petroleum products.

The Russian economy is currently exhibiting signs of severe overheating, characterized by declining business activity, ruble devaluation, and increasing inflationary pressures. The Central Bank of Russia's policy of maintaining high interest rates has significantly reduced investment activity and further constrained economic growth. As a result, the economy is stagnating, concerns among large businesses are growing, and prices are rising.

On November 28, 2024, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) convened a high-stakes meeting in Astana, bringing together the Council of Foreign Ministers, Defense Ministers, and the Committee of Secretaries of Security Councils under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship. Unlike previous summits, this one cloaked its agenda in secrecy, leaving observers and analysts speculating about what might be hidden beneath the surface of discussions.