Baku Accuses Yerevan of Provocation, Claims 'Every Independent State Acquires Weapons According to Its Capabilities'

On July 25, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense accused Armenia of "provoking" by deploying heavy weapons in Kalbajar and quadcopters in the Tovuz direction. The ministry also expressed dissatisfaction and concern over Armenia's military cooperation with Western countries.

The statement highlighted concerns about U.S. military exercises in Armenia, France’s provision of lethal weapons to Armenia, and a €10 million military aid package from the European Union under the “European Peace Fund.” The ministry suggested that these actions encourage Armenia to engage in provocations and prepare for another conflict with Azerbaijan.

President Ilham Aliyev echoed similar sentiments during the opening of the Global Media Forum in Shusha last week, criticizing certain Western countries for their involvement and mediation efforts: "They cannot exist in the South Caucasus region without our consent. If they attempt to do so without us, they will face failure, and it will be a very unfortunate and painful issue for them."

In response, Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the allegations from Azerbaijan. Spokesperson Ani Badalyan emphasized on July 25 that Yerevan remains committed to its "peace agenda" and has no intention of altering this strategy.

Badalyan noted that Baku had not responded to Yerevan's recent proposal for a joint investigation into ceasefire violations. She added that Armenia's purchases of weapons from France and other countries are solely intended for defending its internationally recognized territories.

How are these developments perceived in Azerbaijan?

Rasim Musabayov, a member of the National Assembly, told Turan News Agency that a warning has been issued to Armenia, and the country must draw its own conclusions: "Today, Armenia does not have the power to attack Azerbaijan. However, they may engage in minor provocations, which I do not rule out might be aimed at pressuring Azerbaijan into a peace agreement desired by the Western countries."

Musabayov highlighted Azerbaijan's specific demands: "Armenia must eliminate its territorial claims against Azerbaijan in its legislation. Without resolving this issue, a peace agreement is impossible. Additionally, if a treaty is signed, there should be a joint appeal to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group. This would mean removing the Karabakh issue from the international agenda entirely. Without this, expecting long-term peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is very challenging."

Constitutional amendments in Armenia have been a topic of discussion for some time. However, Armenian opposition views these changes as inadequate. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that constitutional amendments are an internal matter for Armenia and are not driven by Baku’s demands.

Political analyst Zardusht Alizadeh told Radio Free Europe that the positions of the parties suggest that a peace agreement may be delayed until 2027: "Azerbaijan demands changes to Armenia’s Constitution. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, however, states that the constitutional draft will be discussed in December 2026."

Alizadeh noted that the absence of a peace agreement does not affect the regulation of relations between the parties: "Whether or not there is a peace agreement, it does not impact relations. For instance, a comprehensive cooperation agreement exists between Russia and Ukraine, but it did not prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine. Thus, having any complexly written agreement is no guarantee of security."

Alizadeh believes that after its defeat in the 44-day war, Armenia is not ready for a new conflict: "The Armenian people are tired of war. They voted for Pashinyan because he promised not to engage in war."

The analyst also suggested that Azerbaijan has no intention of attacking Armenia, with its primary focus on rebuilding Karabakh, constructing roads, bridges, and residential and administrative buildings.

Regarding the arms supplied to Armenia, Alizadeh argued that every country needs an army: "Armenia must have an army, not for aggression but for self-defense. Every independent state acquires weapons according to its capabilities. There is nothing unusual here. No matter how much Armenia arms itself, it cannot pose a significant threat to us."

He also mentioned that Russia, preoccupied with Ukraine, is not able to focus seriously on the South Caucasus: "However, there are departments in the Russian state apparatus dealing with the South Caucasus. They work to prevent stable and sustainable peace in the region. If peace were achieved and mutual relations improved, the fear of enmity would diminish."