Does the West or Russia want peace in the Caucasus?

During his visit to Azerbaijan on August 6, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu disclosed the topics discussed with President Ilham Aliyev. According to TASS, Sergey Shoigu stated that during his business trip to Baku, attempts by the West to intervene in the process of establishing security in the South Caucasus were discussed.

“A wide range of issues were discussed. This primarily concerns security in the South Caucasus. This includes Armenia's 10th package of proposals to Azerbaijan and, of course, the West's very active attempts to interfere in this process,” Shoigu added.

So far, Western officials have not commented on these specific statements. However, recently, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien stated during a Senate hearing on "Europe's Future" that his country strongly supports peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In response to a question about Moscow obstructing the two countries' peace efforts, he emphasized that Russia wants everything to be realized on its terms:

"To be honest, both countries are frustrated with this situation. We are working hard to ensure that the expressed desire for peace by both sides is reflected in an agreement."

As can be seen, in the U.S., they think quite the opposite about the region's security. In recent years, peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been held with the mediation of both the West and Russia separately, but so far, the initiatives have not yielded tangible results. The Karabakh conflict, which escalated in the 1980s, has occasionally led to armed clashes between the two countries.

Speaking to Radio Liberty about the issue, Arif Mammadov, Azerbaijan's former ambassador to the European Union, said he fully understands Russia's unwillingness to allow the West into the region: "The successful advance of Russian troops on the Ukrainian front and Kyiv's refusal to negotiate indicate that the northern country has more serious ambitions. In general, Russia considers the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) space to be within its sphere of interest. Recent events in Georgia confirm that Russia's position is strengthening and that the 'fifth column' is not weak. There will also be attempts in Armenia."

Despite opposition from the opposition, civil society, and even the president in Georgia, the "foreign agent" law has come into effect. According to the law, organizations receiving 20% of their funding from abroad must register or face fines.

Mammadov believes that Russia is trying to regain the initiative it lost during the war with Ukraine: "While Azerbaijan prefers to prioritize allied relations, Russia will be more ambitious. It may impose demands to obtain certain commitments from Baku. Clearly, Russia will not quietly allow the West into the region. While it may tolerate the simplification of visa regimes between the European Union and CIS countries, it will adopt a threatening stance towards political-military relations."

The former ambassador believes that security is the main issue for Russia and that Moscow is putting the issues more concretely: "Recently, there have been significant changes in the northern country's Ministry of Defense, with generals being arrested. It is noticeable that Russia will try to not only restore but also strengthen its position not only in Ukraine but also in other regions such as the South Caucasus, Moldova, and Central Asia. It will also take steps to weaken the West's position in the regions I mentioned."

Former deputy of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, Hikmat Babaoğlu, also told Turan that he considers Russia a very strong player in the region: "At a time when a new world order is being formed, Russia is trying to maintain its traditional relations in the region. Russia is a close neighbor of Azerbaijan, and recently, new positive impulses have been observed in the relations between the two states. This is both a necessity of sharing a common geography and a significant economic factor for Azerbaijan, given Russia's territory and population. Therefore, on February 22, 2022, an agreement on joint activities was signed between Russia and Azerbaijan. This is a new event in our history of the past 34 years. I think the current state of Russia-Azerbaijan relations suits the interests of both countries," he told Turan.

According to Hikmat Babaoğlu, having good relations with Russia is a necessity demanded by national interests. He believes that all countries in the world are facing new security challenges. He also thinks that the national security concepts that will be formed now will determine the main indicators of the next century: "Currently, Russia is in a position in the international relations system that cannot be ignored. Undoubtedly, a great empire like Russia also has interests in the South Caucasus, which is its close geography. Azerbaijan is trying to become a part of this security by aligning its interests with Russia's interests, with its newly created reality. Anyone who thinks that security can be ensured in our geography without Russia is making a big mistake. Russia is a significant factor and reality. Therefore, without considering this reality, none of the South Caucasian republics can be sure of security issues."

However, former ambassador Arif Mammadov believes that Moscow is not interested in the signing of a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. In his opinion, if there were a peace agreement, Armenia would develop its relations with the West more intensively:

"If Armenia did not have security problems, it would take more serious steps toward integration with the West. Although Armenia has suspended its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, it has not completely distanced itself. They remain in the Eurasian Union. Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on Russia. Even if there were a peace agreement, Russia would want it signed in its desired format, for example, in Moscow. We wanted Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement in a short time because we anticipated that Russia would reveal its imperial ambitions. Today, that ambition is clearly visible."

Hikmat Babaoğlu thinks otherwise. He emphasizes that in the current situation, peace in the South Caucasus is within Russia's interests: "Because Russia does not want to fight on several fronts at the same time and to divide its power into several parts to ensure its security. Having already been involved in a war in Eastern Europe, Russia does not want a war in another geography. Therefore, today, by positively considering peace initiatives and the '3+3' (Russia, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) format, and by actualizing the North-South corridor, it demonstrates a certain will for peace. When it comes to the Russia-West comparison, the countries that currently want peace in the South Caucasus the most are Azerbaijan and Turkey."

By the way, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu came to Azerbaijan from Iran. On August 5, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, referring to Shoigu's visit to Iran at a briefing, stated that they do not expect Russia to play a productive role in reducing tensions in the Middle East.

Miller added, "The United States does not know why Shoigu's visit happened now, but one possibility is that Moscow intends to strengthen its relations with Tehran as it continues to seek support for its aggression against Ukraine."