Experts in Baku predict Vardanyan's departure

Baku/25.01.23/Turan:  By the 45th day of the ecological picket on the Lachin road, all foreign and international forces spoke out against Azerbaijan. The latest statement was from US State Department spokesman Ned Price, urging Baku to ensure the full restoration of free movement along the corridor, including commercial and private travel.

Price was answered by the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Aykhan Hajizade, who reported on the movement along the Lachin road "more than 1,000 vehicles delivering supplies to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan." It would be appropriate to call on the Armenian side to fulfill its obligations and stop illegal actions!” Hajizade wrote on Twitter. 

However, based on the experience of previous verbal skirmishes, one should not expect an end to pressure on Baku. What should Azerbaijan expect under these conditions? Experts said this on the social network.

MP Rasim Musabekov is confident that the Russian temporary military contingent (RMC) in Karabakh will not use force against the Azerbaijanis because the RMC is obliged to ensure the security of not only Armenians, but also Azerbaijanis in its area of responsibility. If the RMC did not oppose Vardanyan and the protesting Karabakh Armenians mobilized by him, who disrupted the agreed monitoring of illegally exploited mines by employees of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan, then they must put up with a similar protest of Azerbaijani environmental activists. The RMC has no right to use weapons against them, and is not able to clear the road by squeezing the protesters out of the way. A few hundred meters from the scene in the city of Shusha, units of Azerbaijani commandos are deployed, which, if necessary, will come to the aid of Azerbaijani civil activists," MP Musabekov writes.

Russia, which is stuck in a war in Ukraine, cannot afford to go into a direct armed clash with Azerbaijan. Three full-fledged corps of the armed forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan are deployed along the perimeter of the zone of control of the RMK, ten times greater in number and firepower than the RMK. So, there is no alternative to reaching an agreement with Baku regarding joint control over the Lachin road so that it is used exclusively for humanitarian purposes. I believe that tacit negotiations are underway and Vardanyan's resistance will be overcome, and he himself will soon, under a plausible pretext, leave Karabakh, the MP added.

Former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov called the activities of the "State Minister of Artsakh" Ruben Vardanyan, his conflict with local criminal authorities under the umbrella of peacekeepers, "the vanity of a useful idiot."

"A few more weeks and the Miatsum 2 project will go down in history in a catastrophic way," the diplomat predicts. He proposes to open traffic under the control of Baku along the Agdare-Kelbajar-border route so that disgruntled Armenians can leave Karabakh.

"It is necessary to introduce control of the border and customs service at the checkpoint in Lachin as soon as possible. Temporarily, only for the safety of the passage of goods and people, after the permission of our border guards, the RMK can observe for another 2 years. But control is only ours! This border and customs control is no different from that, which is used by the Armenians on their border, - Zulfugarov pointed out.

“The only function of the peacekeepers is to control the Lachin road and see that they do not shoot anywhere. They have no other functions. To exclude further similar problems, it is necessary to introduce Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the road,” Farhad Mammadov, director of the Center for South Caucasus Studies, insists.

Russia is not capable of taking measures to return the situation that was before December 12, 2022. Things are moving towards accepting the conditions of Azerbaijan. The "rigidity" of the implementation of trilateral actions is comparable to the four UN Security Council resolutions that Armenia did not comply with. So now, Azerbaijan is taking unilateral action - "international mediation" leaves no choice for Baku to ensure its security with its own resources, he writes.

Mammadov connects the ineffectiveness of Western mediation with the pro-Armenian position of France. "There are costs. There is no way without it. Anti-Azerbaijani content is being created. But this is nothing before achieving goals in the absence of casualties among the personnel of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. If there are only information bubbles, there are no actions - sanctions against the country or the leadership. If it comes to sanctions against Azerbaijan because of Karabakh - this will lead to a prompt solution of the problem by military means.

The field for maneuver for the leadership of Armenia and war criminals in Karabakh is shrinking. On the Russian track, Pashinyan needs "rigorous" implementation of the "obligations" of the Statement dated November 9-10, 2020. On the Western track, Pashinyan cannot push through the topic of Karabakh and his "one hundred percent support for the Russian draft peace treaty" causes irritation and indignation. This leads to disappointment in the United States and Europe. The resolution of the European Parliament and the EU mission in Armenia (first 400, then 200, and send 100) observers is an advance to give courage to the Ijevan fox. No more. And Baku's confidence in Pashinyan is being lost.

Azerbaijan demonstrates that despite the pressure, it does not deviate from its line. The Vardanyan Project has only accelerated the implementation of the steps. At this stage, it is important for Baku to consolidate its own version of a peace treaty on the Moscow track. In Sochi, they managed to repeat the Prague thesis about recognizing each other's territorial integrity.

The self-withdrawal of the EU can be replaced by a regional trilateral in Georgia with behind-the-scenes American participation. Why not?!

We learned about the demands of Azerbaijan from the "president" Arayik Harutyunyan, but it is not noted what periods are determined. Left a little. When the Karabakh junta breaks down, the coming days and weeks will show. And they will break. The main thing is that we overcome psychological barriers and break stereotypes. Well, we remember who behaved and how they behaved these days…”, summed up the expert F. Mammadov.--0--