Has Azerbaijan crossed the line to advance into the Euro-Atlantic space?

Back in 2007, the national security concept of the Republic of Azerbaijan expressed a clear goal of integrating into the Euro-Atlantic space, emphasizing the importance of partnership with Euro-Atlantic structures for overall security, economic development, and democracy within the region.

However, over the course of 16 years since the document's adoption, Azerbaijan's path toward European integration has been mired in controversy. While neighboring countries like Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova have signed cooperation agreements with the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan's negotiations with the EU, which began in 2017, have yet to yield any concrete agreements.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been engaged in unproductive negotiations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) for more than 25 years. These developments raise the question of whether Azerbaijan has abandoned its aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration.

Hikmet Babaoglu, a member of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, defends Azerbaijan's stance, asserting that the country's foreign policy is based on a balanced strategy driven by national interests. He claims in an interview with Turan that the geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since 2007, with Azerbaijan achieving many of its goals during this time. He highlights Azerbaijan's strategic cooperation with a significant portion of EU member states, even though a formal partnership document with the EU remains unsigned. Additionally, Azerbaijan's membership in the Non-Aligned Movement since 2011 and its subsequent chairmanship from 2019 to 2021 reflect its evolving diplomatic priorities.

Babaoglu acknowledges the evolving nature of Azerbaijan's international relations, particularly its strong ties with countries within the Euro-Atlantic space, notably the United States. He anticipates that these relationships will adapt to the evolving geostrategic realities of the region.

Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, takes a different perspective, contending that Azerbaijan has effectively rejected integration into the Euro-Atlantic space. He in an interview with Radio Azadlig, suggests that this stance is enshrined in the country's military doctrine and reflects the government's aim to maintain a balanced foreign policy between Russia and the West, thereby bolstering its own influence. Gasimli notes that recent actions, such as forming an alliance with Russia and simultaneous efforts with Russia regarding the Karabakh issue, indicate that Azerbaijan has abandoned Euro-Atlantic integration.

Gasimli further speculates that Azerbaijan hopes for a protracted and inconclusive outcome in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, allowing Russia to maintain its influence in the region without Western interference. This approach allows Azerbaijan to preserve relations with the West, including aspirations to join the Council of Europe, without fully committing to Euro-Atlantic integration. However, Gasimli argues that this approach hampers Azerbaijan's economic and political development compared to its neighbors, Armenia and Georgia, which have successfully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic space and strengthened their non-oil economies.

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli acknowledges admits to Turan that there are factors influencing Azerbaijan's stance on Euro-Atlantic integration from both sides. He criticizes the EU for slow and unsystematic progress in signing Association Agreements with South Caucasus countries, contributing to regional tensions. Mammadli also notes that the dominance of Russia in the region was not effectively addressed by the EU until after the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.

Mammadli emphasizes the importance of European legal and political values in the South Caucasus, given that the West is Azerbaijan's primary economic and trade partner. He argues that tactical proximity with Russia and Iran may exist, but strategic integration into the Euro-Atlantic space remains an important goal for Azerbaijan, especially in light of its EU membership in the Council of Europe. Ultimately, Mammadli suggests that Azerbaijan's interests align more closely with Euro-Atlantic integration, despite occasional diplomatic shifts in response to changing regional dynamics.