"Iran makes provocations, and Azerbaijan carries out mass arrests of believers"

The Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan reported that an Iranian military aircraft flew along the state border on March 11. According to the official statement, the plane flew 3-5 km from the state border between the two countries, and in some cases completely over the state border. In addition, the international practice of pre-warning a neighboring state about the approach of military aircraft to the state border was not observed: "The fact that an Iranian military aircraft came so close to the state border between the two countries and flew over the border line serves to further aggravate relations between the two countries."

Judging by what is written in the local media of Azerbaijan, such things  happen not the first time. In August 2001, it was reported that the  flights  of the Turkish Air Force aircraft ("falcons") in the sky over Baku was a response to such cases.

Deputy Chairman of the Milli Majlis Committee on Defense, Security and Anti-Corruption Hikmet Babaoglu told Turan that since independence (1991), Iran's attitude towards Azerbaijan has not changed: "It has always been an aggressive and colonial view. It's just that sometimes it all went through explicit, hidden and aggressive phases."

He believes that Iran has never benefited from this: "During the Patriotic (Second Karabakh) War, Iran sent weapons to Armenia and did not achieve any results. Having violated the borders of Azerbaijan, Iran again sent weapons and terrorists to Karabakh along the Kafan-Goris road, but we also closed this path. We also have a list of 19 terrorists that Iran last sent to Karabakh. As a result, Iran has achieved nothing. On the contrary, it has established itself as a state that increasingly supports terror in the system of international relations, and has lost the trust of more than 30 million of our compatriots who are citizens of Iran."

According to Babaoglu, Iran will not dare to take a step in that direction: "Because in the end it will interfere with the rights of a sovereign country, and Azerbaijan, together with its allies, will be forced to respond adequately to this. Azerbaijan signed the Shusha Declaration with fraternal Turkey in 2021, at the same time Azerbaijan has many friendly countries, together with which Azerbaijan is the dictating party in the region."

In his opinion, in parallel, with the help of soft power, Iran is trying to interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan, against which the country's law enforcement agencies are currently taking measures: "On March 12, as a result of the operation of the State Security Service, a group of citizens who tried to act against the Azerbaijani state was exposed. Iran may further organize attacks on Azerbaijan through certain radical religious groups, exploiting people's beliefs. But it will not be effective, because the believers of Azerbaijan are also educated and patriotic."

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu told "Radio Azadlig" that there were such border incidents between Azerbaijan and Iran: "not only on the air, but also on the sea border. There was a serious reaction to all this in various forms. The fact that the reaction is now expressed in the form of a note is related to the current state of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations."

According to him, relations are quite tense: "various provocations are being carried out on the Iranian side, and mass arrests of believers under the guise of an "Iranian spy" are being carried out on the Azerbaijani side. So far, this is a diplomatic mutually tough gesture. However, these are certainly steps towards further aggravation of bilateral relations."

Some local analysts believe that a "controlled" conflict with Iran is also beneficial to the Azerbaijani authorities. By doing this, they want to insure themselves against the expectations of democracy in front of Western institutions.

"I also see imitation here," Orujlu says. However, he thinks somewhat differently: "As if Azerbaijan somehow imitates the aggravation of relations with Iran. Perhaps Moscow is more interested in the Azerbaijani-Iranian conflict. Taking this into account, Azerbaijan does not take steps towards aggravating relations, but simply imitates them. And Iran in turn. All this must be connected with the events in the Middle East. Iran has spread information that an agreement has been reached to restore relations with Saudi Arabia, and this seriously worries Moscow."

Orujlu noted that Moscow is trying by all means to provoke a conflict in the South Caucasus and use this to bring troops into the region. But he does not expect a large-scale conflict or war in the region: "This may lead to more local conflicts. But the probability of this at the current stage is very small."

At the moment, it has not been possible to receive a response from the Iranian Embassy in Azerbaijan. But Iranian officials, as a rule, declare that they are interested in peaceful and good relations with all neighbors, including Azerbaijan. In their opinion, some third forces are simply trying to strain relations between the two countries. Moreover, Iranian officials also refute the allegations that terrorists were sent to Karabakh and military assistance was provided to Armenia.