"The message is that if you want Karabakh, overthrow Pashinyan'

In recent days, some statements by Russian officials have not been interpreted ambiguously in Azerbaijan.
According to the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry (Foreign Ministry) Maria Zakharova, on September 13, Russia demarcated Azerbaijan through diplomatic channels in connection with Baku's statement that it did not recognize the elections in the occupied Ukrainian territories.s. Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, confirmed this development.

Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin made significant remarks during the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok on September 12. He asserted, "The Armenian leadership openly stated that it recognizes the territory of the Azerbaijani SSR until 1991 and announced the figure, which includes Karabakh itself. This is not our decision..." Putin also revisited Russia's earlier proposal to Armenia before the Second Karabakh War, suggesting that Kalbajar and Lachin, along with Karabakh as a whole, remain under Armenian jurisdiction. However, he noted that Armenia did not agree to this proposal, despite years of negotiations.

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on international relations and interparliamentary Relations, interpreted Putin's statements as aligning with Azerbaijan's interests. In an interview with Turan, he remarked, "Putin's opinion here is that the Armenian side should not accuse Russia. In order to prevent such accusations, Putin emphasized that Armenia recognizes Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan. That is, the problem is your problem."

Putin's speech also shed light on the negotiations that took place before the liberation of Azerbaijani territories. It appeared that Kalbajar and Lachin were considered as zones under Armenian control, and Putin shared this perspective, not viewing them as Azerbaijani territories. Nasirov praised the historic victory of the Azerbaijani army in reclaiming these regions.

Despite Russia's recent actions, Azerbaijan's position remains unchanged. Azerbaijan stands firmly in support of the principle of territorial integrity for all nations, expecting the same treatment in return. Nasirov illustrated this by posing a hypothetical scenario: "Let's imagine that Ukraine occupies four provinces of Russia. In such a situation, Azerbaijan would defend the territorial integrity of Russia. We respect such high principles as the inviolability of territorial integrity."

Azer Gasimli, the head of the Institute of Political Management, emphasized that Russia's foreign policy tends to prioritize power over international law. In an interview with Radio Azadlig, he  pointed to Russia's actions in Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea, as evidence of this approach.

Gasimli also noted that Putin's recent statements were not unprecedented. After the 44-day war in the South Caucasus region, Putin proposed the "5+2" format for negotiations and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces. While Azerbaijan accepted this proposal, Armenia did not.

According to Gasimli, the overarching message from Russia has consistently been that Armenians should overthrow Nikol Pashinyan if they wish to regain control of Karabakh. Gasimli further highlighted that no major international actors have recognized the "presidential election" held by the separatist parliament in Karabakh, including the United States, the European Union, the Council of Europe, the UN, Ukraine, Moldova, and others. Notably, Russia has refrained from making any such statement, implying a more ambiguous stance on the issue.

In a recent move, Russia held "elections of Deputies to regional parliaments" in four occupied regions of Ukraine (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson) from September 8 to 10. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry responded by stating that these "elections" had no legal validity, highlighting the complexity of regional geopolitics and its impact on Azerbaijan's foreign relations.