What can change O'brien's visit to Azerbaijan?

Amidst heightened tensions in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien is set to visit Azerbaijan, according to a statement from the U.S. State Department. The purpose of the visit is to engage in discussions aimed at strengthening bilateral ties with Baku and addressing the ongoing peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The diplomatic strain intensified after remarks made by O'Brien during a House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Europe hearing on November 15. At the hearing, O'Brien asserted that relations with Azerbaijan would not normalize until a peace agreement with Armenia was signed. In response, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined proposed meetings with the Armenian Foreign Minister in Washington on November 20.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in a statement to Turan, clarified the U.S. position, stating, "We never said that we were not going to continue relations with Azerbaijan; this would be contrary to our interests." Miller emphasized that diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan were crucial for regional peace and security.

Highlighting concerns over recent trends, Miller expressed apprehension about the detention of journalists in Azerbaijan. He reiterated the U.S. stance on human rights and fundamental freedoms, emphasizing the importance of respecting these principles.

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations, in an interview with Turan characterized U.S.-Azerbaijan relations as strategic, with shared positions on fundamental issues. However, Nasirov acknowledged some complexities, attributing them to what he called the "reward of meekness."

Nasirov discussed the historical context of the U.S. Congress adopting the "907th Amendment" in 1992, suspending aid to Azerbaijan. He suggested that the U.S. may be dissatisfied with Azerbaijan's independent policy and emphasized Azerbaijan's commitment to non-alignment.

According to Nasirov, the recent strain in relations may stem from the U.S. desire to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus. He argued that Azerbaijan's independent policy contrasts with the U.S. preference for pro-American policies in the region.

In anticipation of O'Brien's visit, Nasirov believed that Washington understood Azerbaijan's geopolitical significance. He expressed hope that the visit would contribute to easing tensions in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations.

Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, in an interview with Radio Azadlig,  underscored the need to prioritize avoiding conflict over signing a peace agreement. He speculated that if problems arose in the conflict resolution process, human rights and democracy could become priorities.

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu, in an interview with Radio Azadlig, contended that the strained relations were not solely tied to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. He suggested that U.S. pressure on Azerbaijan could be related to its regional partnerships with Russia and Turkey.

Orujlu highlighted Azerbaijan's cautious approach to regional projects, participating in negotiations while working with Turkey and Iran. He proposed that Azerbaijan aims to navigate these regional dynamics without aligning with a specific side.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been going on since 1988, is a source of disagreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Despite Azerbaijan's restoration of sovereignty over the territories previously occupied by Armenia in 2020, a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. The ongoing negotiations involve separate mediation by the European Union and Russia, while Russia has sent military personnel to the region. Recent events include Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist measures in Karabakh, described by Yerevan as "ethnic cleansing" and "aggression", which led to the migration of the population from Karabakh to Armenia. The current situation highlights the complexity of regional dynamics and the difficulties in achieving lasting peace.