If Trump persistently repeats the same stance, it means he should be taken seriously

Donald Trump, the 47th President of the United States, was inaugurated on January 20 and began his term by taking an oath. He started his administration by implementing a state of emergency at the Mexico border and also pledged to immediately declare a national energy emergency, replenish strategic reserves, and export American energy worldwide.

Trump revoked 78 decisions made during Joe Biden's presidency and, with a new decree, placed Cuba back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. He also signed decrees regarding the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization.

The US President believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin should engage in negotiations to end the war. In his view, by refusing to accept the agreement, Putin is destroying Russia.

So what does Trump's presidency promise to the world and the region?

Political commentator Shahin Jafarli spoke to ASTNA regarding the topic.

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Question: Mr. Shahin, what conclusion do Trump's initial actions and statements form for you?

Answer: Trump's initial actions show that he is determined to fulfill the promises he made to his voters. Of course, time will tell to what extent he can successfully implement those promises. However, it must be said that the new President is committed to his own agenda and acts honestly in his relations with the people.

Question: Many experts consider his statements to be unserious, and some express their concerns. Do you think it's worth being worried about his policies?

Answer: We should take seriously the statements and words of anyone holding the position of US President. Of course, this doesn't mean that every word and sentence coming from the US President's mouth will necessarily be reflected and realized in practice. However, if he persistently repeats the same stance, it means everyone should take it seriously. Regarding his statements about Canada, Panama, and Greenland, I doubt that Trump will implement these intentions by using military force. Diplomacy will be prioritized in this matter. However, Trump's method of achieving an agreement, or to use his preferred term, negotiation, differs from classical diplomatic methods. By taking a firm and unequivocal stance in advance, he tries to force the opposing side to soften its position and be fully open to negotiation before sitting down at the table.

Question: What does his policy promise to the world? Which problems will be solved, and which ones will escalate?

Answer: Currently, we see that Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. Of course, whether he will achieve this remains to be seen, but there is a chance. Before he even began his term, he played an important role in achieving an agreement between Israel and Hamas. In the next phase, we will likely observe the implementation of the "Abraham Accords," which aim to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries. Trump will try to reduce the large trade deficit that is unfavorable to the US in mutual trade with China through dialogue; if this is not possible, he will impose high tariffs on Chinese products. This can also apply to trade with allied countries (Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, South Korea). Trump does not place much importance on alliance in economic and trade relations and is firmly against unilateral concessions to any country. Undoubtedly, the US's activity against China in the Indo-Pacific region will continue. If the Chinese government attempts to resolve the Taiwan issue by military means, the existing controlled tensions could escalate into open conflict. In the Middle East, the pressure on Iran will continue during Trump's term, and within the next four years, the use of military force by the US and Israel may not be excluded in resolving this country's nuclear program problem.

Question: How will Trump's policies affect the region?

Answer: Our region—the South Caucasus—is not among the top priorities of US foreign policy. However, the new administration may achieve the signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the near future. This topic was brought up during a phone conversation between the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan. Ankara and Washington have overlapping interests regarding the quick signing of peace. It is still unclear what position the Trump administration will take regarding the political crisis in Georgia. In Congress, Republicans and Democrats hold a tough stance against Bidzina Ivanishvili and his government and openly support the protesters and opposition in that country. The administration cannot ignore this sentiment in Congress. However, the "Dream of Georgia" government is hopeful that relations with them will improve during Trump's term, a new chapter in relations with the West will open, and the protests in the country will end without achieving any results. If this hope does not materialize, we may witness changes in the situation in Georgia.

Question: The Azerbaijani government seems pleased with his return to the presidency. However, during his previous term, the price of oil had dropped significantly in the global market. Interestingly, what does the Azerbaijani government expect from his new term?

Answer: Ideologically and politically, the Azerbaijani government sees itself aligned with Trump and the Republicans' "Trump wing." They believe that Trump's—and generally the Republicans'—preference for conservative values on the ideological level and their pragmatic, non-idealist stance in the political sphere create a favorable environment for better understanding with this administration. Trump's business-oriented approach in foreign policy, his tendency to negotiate concrete agreements at the table, and his inclination towards trade are positively received in Baku. In popular street jargon in Azerbaijan, our government thinks that it's possible to sit down with Trump and have a "man's talk." Democrats are considered complete antagonists of the Republicans on all these issues in Baku. They believe that Democrats are not concrete, inconsistent, avoid keeping their promises, lie, etc. In foreign policy, the Democrats' occasional emphasis on human rights and democracy issues (even at a rhetorical level) is perceived by the Azerbaijani government as interference in internal affairs and causes irritation. There is an approach that while Republicans prioritize energy and security in bilateral dialogues, Democrats also bring up human rights issues, and by financing independent opposition civil society organizations, they pose a threat to internal stability. At the same time, Democrats are perceived in Azerbaijan as an "pro-Armenian" force. For all these reasons, Republicans are considered the more desirable side.

Regarding the issue of oil, Trump has already declared that it's necessary to lower the price of this commodity. If oil becomes significantly cheaper and low prices persist for a period (at least one year), undoubtedly, the Azerbaijani economy will face serious stress. Azerbaijan still has an archaic economic model based on raw material exports. Our state budget is entirely dependent on oil and gas revenues. If a decrease in these revenues occurs, red flags will start to appear for the Azerbaijani economy. In such a case, the devaluation of the manat and social tension may become inevitable.

Question: Could Trump's statements about Panama, Canada, and Greenland inspire other country leaders?

Answer: Trump's attempts to enforce his territorial claims in practice and by force would undoubtedly constitute a blatant violation of international law. In such a case, Russia's occupation in Ukraine would also be legitimized in a way. Generally, strong states might become eager to oppress weaker ones and seize their territories and resources. I believe that these scenarios will not occur, and the US side will prioritize diplomatic methods in resolving these issues.