A 44-day war and the meaninglessness of 30-year confrontation

The war showed the senselessness of the 30-year occupation of the Azerbaijani territories by Armenia, the main goal of which was to tear away Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Perhaps this can be called the most important result of the 44-day war. The long-term policy of annexing Karabakh to Armenia has depleted the material and human resources of both sides. The question is not only about human and technical losses in wars. The question is the tragedy in the lives of millions of people from both nations, who were deprived of full-fledged creation. Hundreds of thousands of people became refugees, millions of people left their countries in search of a better life.

A year after the war, although not a long time, but it can be used to consider the contours of the future. And they are not rosy, if you pay attention to the actions of governments and the rhetoric of politicians. Both countries are looking for new weapons and technologies. Armenia seeks to catch up, Azerbaijan - to break away. Resource depletion continues. Armenian politicians and experts, not all of course, but not a minority, are building various models of a possible revenge, hoping more for geopolitical cataclysms around the region. The epithet "Enemy" is not excluded from the lexicon.

It is possible that it is precisely these sentiments in the political elite of both countries that do not allow the advancement of the peace process on any platform or within the framework of any initiative. The OSCE Minsk Group, the main mediator of the conflict, did not function for a whole year, the statement of November 10 was not implemented in its main aspect - unblocking communications, Georgia's mediation initiative did not go beyond the exchange of prisoners for mine cards. No one took advantage of the peace initiatives of Turkish President Erdogan - 3 + 3 and Georgian Prime Minister Gabriashvli - 3 + 2.

The international community is in a pandemic crisis that has limited contacts and interests of states, paralyzing their will in all directions. With the exception of the President of Kazakhstan, by the morning of November 8, none of the leaders congratulated President Aliyev on his victory, not even his fellow members of the Turkic Council. The world is confused.

The war, which removed the 30-year-old tension of confrontation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies, exposed non-military problems of a social, economic, moral and other nature. Societies are at a loss whether to protest against power or to hold on to a world that still appears fragile amid ceremonial statements and saber-rattling.

However, in this context, one should expect that societies that have freed themselves from 30 years of militarized life will increasingly focus on the bare fragments of the life of their states - social needs will come to the fore and are already taking shape.

There is doubt that the second post-war year for Armenia and Azerbaijan will be a year of trials for the search for ways of the future coexistence of two hostile states, as well as societies and states whose relations are no less hostile, no matter how strange it may seem in conditions of victory for some and defeat for others.