A war of geopolitical strategies: Project of Great Near East versus Euro-Asian Plan (first article)

The pandemic has relegated to the background of public attention an array of advancing political processes to comply with a rather contradictory logic of the modern world. Two of the processes aimed at curbing each other are known as the Project of Great Near East (PGNE, since 1980) and the Euro-Asian Plan (EP, since2017). From political-geographical point of view, the first one includes Arab countries of the Near East, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, the Caucasian region, some Moslem countries of the central eastern region and North Africa.

Of interest is the fact that Israel is minded to execute a new model of integration unification of the region , first, by means of the creation of free trade zones on territories bordering upon Israel; second, through carrying it over to the whole Near Eastern region.

It should be reminded that the Euro-Asian plan was announced on September 20, 2019 by professor of the Istanbul University, Mehmet Perinçek in his article «Near Eastern and North African Plan of Moscow» which said that Russia, with a view of neutralizing the USA in the region, is working out a project (with the active involvement of Iran and Turkey) alternative to the American project PGNE – EP. What are prospects of the two alliances and how can their activity affect Azerbaijan?

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It ought to be noted that in reality the PGNE became apparent due to events of «Arab spring» that started (or provoked) in 2010, Tunisia and further Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Djibouti and Western Sahara. Mass protests on such a vast territory gave rise to various conspiracy theories. However, it was US-aired ideas of «redrawing the Great Near East» and Iran’s clandestine efforts to advance its influence in the region by means of «Shiite renewal» that played their role in large-scale changes of traditionalist political systems. It is also obvious that understandably these processes have been in the spotlight of Russia and Turkey while some EU countries have taken an active part in «overthrowing tyrannies».

What is important to notice is that the IMF believes that Arab countries paid above $55 billion for «spring»; however, the League of Arab countries paid $75 billion (2012), British Bank HSBC (2013) noted in its report that owing to these developments the economy of the Near East would lose $800 billion till the end of 2014; the UNO limited itself to $614 billion.

It is understood that as a whole, the United States failed to execute the PGNE; however, it does not follow that the plan has been rejected or could be transformed into a new doctrine to address previous issues.

As for the EP, it has formally been set in motion in the course of a meeting of Astana three in Ankara even despite the fact that an idea of pooling efforts together for domination in the region has grown ripe a long ago but lost momentum due to the consociation issue.

As М. Perinçek notes, the EP implied to form regional alliances on the basis of harmonious unity of traditional forms of Islam contrary to the West-fuelled Wahhabism. A final integration of these alliances is to be accompanied by unification of Orthodox Christianity, Sunnism and Shiism for attainment of political purpose. It sets against the United States that found a pretext for attacking Afghanistan and Iraq with successive uncontrolled growth of terrorism and Salafism. It was the Arab spring that speeded up the redrawing of boundaries and liquidated secular nationalistic regimes that had decades blocked up radical Islamists.

It should be remembered that the ISIS’ defeat in Syria and Iraq, failure of the western project «Arab spring» and the crisis of liberal ideology on a worldwide scale created new opportunities for region’s stabilization and its transformation into the stronghold of multipolar world order. Today, three states with their great imperial past have to take responsibility for spiritual and geopolitical future of the Near East and North Africa. In so doing, Russia is meant as the main proponent of globalization and Atlanticism while Shiite Iran, with its unique experience of present-day spiritual revolution, is to become the pattern of society’ mobilization based on national-religious ideals, and Turkey  -  to facilitate the recovery of traditional roots of Sunni Islam as a paragon for the Arab world. Countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should choose between Atlanticism and Euro-Asianticism.  Suffice it to say that many former US allies have begun re-examining relations with the Atlantic camp and gradually taking the neutral path or even adopting the Euro-Asian standards.

It has to be kept in mind that Sufism pays a particular, unifying role in the Euro-Asian Plan not only in Turkey but all other countries of th Near East and North Africa to face off against radical Salafism. In this respect, Pakistan is capable of playing its own part in terminating the Afghan conflict in case of a new Euro-Asian order establishment. As a matter of fact, achievement of mutual understanding between Sunnites, Shiites and Christians is a key to addressing totality of Near Eastern issues. These include Kurdish and Palestinian problems, as well as the state systems of countries actually estranged due to the American onslaught (Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Libya.

Beyond any doubt, political doctrines are not only enforced but developed as well by means of implementing economic projects particularly important for the region dubbed as hydrocarbon storehouse for the Old World. How are things going in the matter? A partial response to the question was given by Israeli political expert Abraham Shmulevich in an exclusive interview «Palestine Project is wrapped up» to Baku «Zerkalo». According to this expert well-known on the post-Soviet expanse, conclusion of an agreement between Israel and the UAR/Bahrain is changing the geopolitical dynamic on the entire Near East and affecting processes around Palestine.

It should be borne in mind that the Arab countries are beginning to see that the far-fetched Palestinian question is meant to split the Near East. On the other hand, re-establishment of relations leads to the abridgement of Iran’s pressures on these countries, reduction of the export of the Islamic revolution and strengthening of common interests with Israel. The above-mentioned was enforced in practice – an inimitable alliance between Saudi Arabia, monarchies of the Gulf, aid in the war with Houthis, etc.

These plans are economically backed by plans announced by Shmulevich in his interview: «Gas forum of the Eastern Mediterranean and Israel».

Under the documents (September 22, 2020), Israel joined a new regional structure – Gas Forum of the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean that included Egypt, Jordan, Palestinian autonomy, Greece, Cyprus and Italy. Notre that Turkey, Lebanon, Libya and Syria were not invited to attend the Forum.

To sum up, today the issue at hand is the creation of a new geopolitical reality, a common  economic expanse to include the Eastern Mediterranean with Saudi Arabia as leader. These developments are likely to alter the scale of the Islamic world, economic situation in Europe and, to some extent, the global geopolicy. The time is ripe for implementation of the project under the leadership of moderate Moslem monarchies.

It has to be kept in mind that oil pipelines will pump oil via Jordan to Israel and from there to European markets through the Mediterranean Sea. It will be followed by the creation of a network of railways to transport cargo and passengers.

Also, there is a run of military arrangements to unite Italy, Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries.

The point is about a bloc of countries that involve former territories of te Ottoman Empire without Turkey’s participation. These include regions of the Eastern Mediterranean, Great Near East, Gulf and even Black Sea. For reasons undefined, Russia is missing in the list made by the Israeli political analyst. The contest is underway where Ankara is allegedly losing, especially when it comes to te aggravation of relations with Greece and Cyprus and, hence, the EU.

If it comes to the direct confrontation, the European countries will rally to the defense of Greece having appropriate agreements with Israel and Egypt and support by the United States.

It follows thence an anti-Iranian component of the new Project where the policy of containment is a matter of principle for Israel and some Arab countries quoted above. The political expert makes no secret of the fact that the Project is directed to the large-scale isolation of Turkey and Iran.

In the meanwhile, a message came down that the Palestinian Party FATAH as dominating muscle in the government of the Palestine autonomy on the occupied West Bank met with a HAMAS delegation in Turkish capital of Ankara (September 23, 2020) with a view of discontinuing the internal split. On September 3, President of the Palestinian autonomy Mahmud Abbas held a meeting where heads of Palestinian factions agreed to fix the peaceful transfer of power by means of free and fair elections in line with proportional representative office.

It goes without saying that this fact is to be regarded as a response to the normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Israel.

What is the Azerbaijan’s role in all these developments and what should Baku do under current circumstance? These issues will be detailed in the second article.

Ali Abasov