Ali AbasovResolution of the French Senate - the absolute maximum of claims against Azerbaijan

A variety of response steps are proposed: to demand France's withdrawal from the Minsk Group (MG), to declare at the OSCE summit that the conflict has found its solution, since Armenia formally ceases to be a party to the conflict since December 1, and this is now an internal problem of Azerbaijan. Therefore, MG may be dismissed or will have to change its format. There are also radical counter proposals: to recognize the independence of Corsica, New Caledonia and the genocide of the Algerians carried out by France. This is not surprising, since the resolution of the Senate represents the absolute maximum of claims made against Azerbaijan by the Armenian side, which, most likely, was directly involved in drawing up this document. The Senate, in turn, expressed in the document all French claims to Turkey. As a result, of the Armenian-French lawmaking, a document was obtained in which Azerbaijan is presented as a local aggressor, and Turkey is a regional aggressor. Interestingly, France assumes the right to speak on behalf of all of Europe, while it has the support of only a few European countries interested in containing Turkey

Let us turn to some passages of the document. The accusations against Turkey are large-scale: its president in recent years has multiplied cases of provocations, intimidation and threats against France and other European countries. The expansionist policy pursued by Erdagan is the main factor of destabilization in the eastern Mediterranean, the Near and Middle East, and now in the South Caucasus. Such destabilization poses a threat to France and Europe as a whole. The conflict is taking place on the borders of two particularly volatile regions of the world - the Caucasus and the Middle East, and it carries the risk of escalation, potentially affecting regional powers.

At one time, France categorically opposed (and now this position has not changed) Turkey's admission to the EU, and its president, Nicole Sarkozy, proposed creating a Mediterranean organization following the example of the European Union and generously allowing Turkey to participate in it. Now Ankara is independently engaged in the integration of a much larger geopolitical space, nominating itself to the informal leaders of the regions listed above. Now Turkey is also settling in the South Caucasus region (oh, horror!), Together with Russia, trying to integrate the vast space from the Mediterranean Sea to the borders of "friendly" China. The nature and direction of further expansion of the Russian-Turkish tandem is obvious for French diplomacy. It is no coincidence that shortly before the adoption of the resolution, E. Macron expressed a desire for MG “to play a full role in establishing methods of control” over the cessation of hostilities in NK. Paris is confident that the trilateral agreement of November 9 "should be consolidated" with "clarification of important points" - in particular, on the continuation of peace talks.

"Arguments" against Azerbaijan as accusations are more curious: Ankara's military support to Baku is at the heart of the aggression that began on September 27, 2020 against the population of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). The Armenian population of NK, when it was under the rule of Azerbaijan, was repeatedly subjected to organized massacres (!). Reports of the European Commission on Combating Racism and Intolerance under the Council of Europe and the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination testify to the impossibility for the Armenian population to live freely in Azerbaijan (!); as a result, the safety and freedom of the Armenian population of NK are not guaranteed by the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Therefore, the French Senate condemns the military aggression of Azerbaijan, carried out with the support of the Turkish authorities and foreign mercenaries. It demands the immediate withdrawal of the Azerbaijani armed forces and their supporters from the territories seized as a result of military operations carried out in the NK region since September 27, 2020; invites the government, within the framework of the MG, to uphold the immediate implementation of protection of the population by deploying an international peacekeeping force under its auspices in accordance with the recommendations of the 2007 peace plan; invites the government to call for an international investigation into war crimes committed in NK, in particular against the civilian population, and the use of weapons prohibited by international law;  calls on the government to do everything possible so that, within the framework of the MG, negotiations on a long-term and agreed settlement of the conflict could be resumed without delay, which would ensure the restoration of the borders defined in 1994, the security of the Armenian population and the right to return of displaced persons, as well as the preservation of cultural and religious heritage of Armenia; invites the government to draw all diplomatic conclusions from the role played by the Turkish authorities and consider the most decisive response with its European partners; calls on the government to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and turn this recognition into an instrument of negotiations in order to establish a lasting peace. "

The French Senate essentially proposes to drive the current situation into the 1994 framework in order to conduct “fruitful” negotiations for another 30 years. There is no doubt that the members of the Senate are well aware of the absurdity of the totality of their claims, but they follow the diplomatic formula: "forgive everything in order to get at least something."

The reaction of the Armenian de jure and de facto authorities was not long in coming. The NK, considering it possible to decide for Moscow what Russia's interests are, noted that after the aggression, military occupation of a significant part of the territory and Azerbaijan's public refusal to discuss the status issue, any obstacles to the recognition of NK independence by other states are removed. "We are convinced that the process of international recognition of the Republic of Artsakh also meets the interests of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, including the medium and long-term interests of the Russian Federation." The statement-approval of the decision of the French Senate by N. Pashinyan, who signed the agreement on November 9, is simply illogical, if not a faint hint that he was forced by Russia to surrender.

On November 24, a round table chaired by Ara Abrahamyan was held in Yerevan on the initiative of the World Armenian Congress and the Union of Armenians of Russia. His decisions do not require special comments: the resignation of Prime Minister N. Pashinyan (which seems to open the way to disavow the November 9 agreement or its points); military operations are over, but the struggle is just beginning. It has entered a new, more fateful and responsible stage ”; immediate package solution of domestic and foreign policy issues related to the post-war fate and development of Artsakh and Armenia, consolidation and effective use of the potential of Diaspora; constitutionally, it is necessary to elect a new prime minister and a competent government. The government of the crisis period can only be headed by the leader who not only declares and justifies the roadmap, but also presents the timing of the phased implementation of each point (bearing responsibility for a possible failure), as well as - most importantly - the implementation mechanisms and funding sources.

During a year, the new government is to prepare early parliamentary elections.  The slogan for the near future: "We have lost the battle, but not the battle." What familiar words! What is the reaction to France's construction of the role of the leader of Europe?

Thomas de Waal believes that it is necessary to "reinvent the MG", returning to the idea of ​​rotation of the co-chairs that existed in the 1990s. He notes that France should give up its place in the MG, and Russia uses this format "only to give its agreement international legitimacy, in order to simply put a stamp." The preservation of the MG format should be preceded by the inclusion in it of a European country that commands respect both in Armenia, as well as in Azerbaijan, since at present Baku perceives France as a pro-Armenian voice, which deprives it of any mechanisms of impact."

Obviously, the continuation of the plot will begin after the change of administration in the White House, when J. Biden will have to solve the very difficult task of reconstructing US foreign policy, the priorities of which should be poorly coordinated relations with the EU, China, and Russia. It is not excluded that the new US president will stake on Turkey in order to return this country to the orbit of the West and at the same time cut off Ankara's ties with Moscow and Tehran, a triumvirate striving to wrest the great European space from under American domination through a "global strategic revolution" Xavier Rofer Russia-Turkey-Iran. A geopolitical Troika that managed to change radically our world in the absence of our reaction. Atlantico - 25.11.20). According to this professor of political science, “At the origins of this strategic revolution are two world-class players, V. Putin and R. Erdogan:

“… Pretending that they are opposed to each other, in fact they are playing together; this is happening more and more often after the failed coup in the summer of 2016, which forced Erdogan to reconsider his strategy of survival and counteroffensive. This tacit collusion operates in Libya, Sudan and, including the Arabian Peninsula."

Meanwhile, the European Union announced the consideration at the summit on December 10-11, 2020 of the issue of sanctions against Turkey "in connection with its activities in the Eastern Mediterranean", EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell told the European Parliament in Brussels: "We are definitely at a critical juncture in our relationship with Turkey."

Ali Abasov