Anatomy of a news story about the opposition

Despite the expectations, the process in Afghanistan did not go as Turkey wanted. Diplomatic efforts are underway to keep the Turkish embassy in Kabul not shut down. The main purpose of this is to mediate with countries trying to establish relations with the new regime in Afghanistan. It won't take long to see if it achieves the objective. Because some countries, from the Far East to Europe, are already making direct efforts to establish contacts with the second Taliban state. Given that the rulers of the radical Islamic state this time are extremely pragmatic and realistic people who try to read and understand the world, Ankara has no choice but to take a realistic approach to the process. The safe withdrawal of 1,500 servicemen from the country showed this.

How close will it be to Ankara's policy in this area if the radical Islamist state accepts Beijing's "do not touch on the Uyghur issue" condition, giving China a significant part of the economy, especially infrastructure? It is a fact that from the very beginning, the Islamic Emirate has been pragmatic and thinking about its own economic interests, rather than Islamic ideology, on this issue, which can shed light on the future of relations with Turkey. One of the issues that worry Turkey in the dizzyingly fast-paced process has been the silent departure of General Rashid Dostum of Uzbek descent, whom it has supported for years in various forms and means, with pragmatism in line with his interests: that is, given the current situation in Afghanistan, years of covert cooperation not only with radical Islamists but also with ethnic groups of Turkish origin, who make up 10 percent of the country's population, have failed. That is, despite the evolution of the "soft power" doctrine of foreign policy in the 1990s into the "conquest" doctrine in the name of "strategic depth" in 2010, Ankara has not been able to make any significant gains from either in the 30-year period. When it failed to do so, it became difficult to turn it into cash in domestic politics: as the political Islam of the “Muslim brotherhood” origin weakened in the region, the Raiba sign was removed from the circulation of Turkey's ruling party without the masses noticing.

Even if it is held on time (June 2023), with about 20 months to go before the presidential and parliamentary elections, the current political alliance is testing all options to the best of its ability to stay in power. Problems in the economic sphere are not only not suitable for opening the purse on the eve of the elections (all the resources of the treasury and the Central Bank were exhausted in the municipal elections in March 2019) but also for realistic promises. Even if the launch of a project like the Istanbul Canal, which is likely to bring dynamism to the economy, fails to create the dynamism that the ruling bloc expects, the solution remains ideology and amendments to the law.

In the current situation, public opinion polls have made it inevitable to accelerate amendments to the law because the ruling bloc's smaller ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is unable to cross the 10% national barrier (this is the consequence of not using the experience of Mr. Zahid Oruj). But this time, a very small ally of the government protested that if lowering the country's barrier is on the agenda, “do not lower it but abolish it completely”. In other words, the parliament should look like a kind of village wedding. The request of the Great Union Party, which has about 100,000 votes, will not be accepted; however, given that any split in the ruling bloc on the eve of the election has had a negative impact on the general electorate, it is not difficult to guess that these statements make Mr. Erdoğan nervous.

While the election is still in its infancy, it will never be possible to ignore the influence that small parties, which support the government with or without inclusion in the block, can create in a negative or positive sense. Another issue on the agenda is the rapid change of the system to parliamentary rule and the need to go to the polls without the need for a political alliance with any party. Although President Erdoğan and MHP leader Bahçeli have stated that the system will never be changed, it should not be forgotten that this option may also exist in a democratic political environment.

As long as everything follows the rules of democracy, the voters will find a solution.

Mayis Alizade