Azerbaijan 2030:The goals and spirit of the document

3.Competitive human capital and space for modern innovations

One of the most important issues facing us is competitiveness. Special emphasis is placed on human capital, which is a very important participant in competitiveness. One of the main goals of the document is the importance given to human capital. Human capital is focused on by emphasizing the factors that shape it. In order to successfully implement this priority, the following three goals [1] are to be achieved: (i) education in accordance with the requirements of the 21^st century, (ii) a creative and innovative society, and (iii) a healthy lifestyle of citizens.

These are wonderful goals. But these goals have not been announced now. Nine years ago, the government adopted a document by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan dated December 29, 2012. The document titled “Azerbaijan 2020: Look into the Future” [2] also noted the following areas in the section entitled “Towards a Highly Competitive Economy” to support scientific potential and innovation, improve transport, transit, and logistics infrastructure, develop information and communication technologies, etc. If you read both documents side by side, you will not see any significant differences in this direction. Some elements have been added to the intermediate goals, which serve only the main goals. For example, there are detailed additions such as "to achieve a significant improvement in the country's position in international assessments (PISA, PIRLS, TIMSS, ICILS)."

There are many eye-catching ideas about the goal of a "creative and innovative society." However, for this purpose, the development of the processing industry should be deepened, and the formation of competitive financing mechanisms for the promotion of results-oriented scientific research to ensure the development of science-intensive and high-income medium and high-tech industries. But if we look at the amount of funding to support the scientific sphere, then it is clear that not only competition in the scientific field has not been encouraged but also it has been more demotivated. If we take and analyze the last years, even decades, of science expenditures from the state budget, it will be clear that it has fluctuated between 100-130 million AZN. This figure fluctuated between 0.2-0.5 percent of GDP on average. The ratio of science expenditures to GDP is 10-20 times lower than the same indicator in developed countries. Poor funding also means staying on the brink of scientific failure. Paragraph 4.3 of the Development Concept “Azerbaijan 2020: Look into the Future” [3]  adopted 12 years ago even contained very beautiful ideas that were voiced very loudly in the section “Supporting scientific potential and innovation activity.” When you look back, you see that these are just the sentences we have today.

The Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan on Approval of Strategic Roadmaps for the National Economy and Key Sectors of the Economy [4] also aimed at "Supporting scientific potential and innovation." As a way to achieve this goal, the stimulating effect of the involvement of other sources, along with state budget resources, in the financing of science is discussed. It is shown to strengthen the social protection of employees engaged in scientific activities, including youth, to prevent the accelerated "brain drain". However, after the adoption of this document (2015-2020), the brain drain increased and donors who fed the brain centers financially were expelled from the country.

The intermediate goal - "Healthy lifestyle of citizens" - of the document entitled "Azerbaijan 2030" is designed to ensure the longevity and healthy lifestyle of citizens. As we know, health and longevity directly depend on the quality of the health care system in the country. It is possible to increase the average life expectancy of the population through quality health and a healthy lifestyle. In terms of life expectancy, we have gone backwards, not forwards. According to the State Statistical Committee, the average life expectancy between men and women in Azerbaijan [5] was 78 for women and 73 for men. According to the world's highest average life expectancy (Hong Kong - 83.5, South Korea - 81.4), we are not close to any of the 15 countries. According to last year's figures [6], Georgia ranked 61^st, Armenia 81^st, and Azerbaijan 88^th in Human Development Index (HDI). Known as the land of longevity, Azerbaijan has the lowest life expectancy at birth among the South Caucasus republics.

Such large-scale measures cannot be limited to the transition to compulsory health insurance in a few pilot districts. Improvements in the three main indicators of HDI (gross national income per capita, expected years of schooling, and life expectancy at birth) appear to be the result of comprehensive measures. This is not just about the documents adopted and the descriptions shown there. Such documents cover solid boundaries and institutional frameworks of the activity. Practical effects and results provide a basis for thinking about the implementation mechanisms of these documents.

However, the Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan on Approval of Strategic Roadmaps for the National Economy and Key Sectors of the Economy [7] states that in the Human Capital Report 2015 released by the World Economic Forum, Azerbaijan ranks in the middle (63^rd) among 124 countries ahead of countries such as Turkey, China, Indonesia, and Kuwait. If it is a great success to move from 63^rd place to 88^th place in the HDI in 2020, then it puts the spirit of these documents in a magical circle.

4.Great return to the liberated territories;

This paragraph can be considered a key paragraph that has not yet been repeated in any government document. Because when the previous documents were adopted, there were occupied lands. To ensure the safe living of people returning to the liberated territories, the following two goals [8] are to be achieved: (i) sustainable settlement and (ii) reintegration into economic activity.

An important factor driving both activities is connected with the opportunities that Azerbaijan can get in the direction of restoring a new international and regional transport and logistics corridor in the region. This opportunity can increase Azerbaijan's access to global markets, as well as add a different color to the development of the liberated territories. For the development of this transport and logistics corridor, the interests of Turkey, Pakistan, and China must be ensured against the background of the weakening of Russia's military dominance in the region. With the possibility of unilateral pressure from one of the major powers, Azerbaijan's chances of becoming a hub in the region will be difficult. We must take this into account now. This makes it necessary to work on another document - the military doctrine of Azerbaijan. In the post-conflict period, Azerbaijan's military doctrine must be formed on the basis of new imperatives and directives.

5.Clean environment and "green growth" country.

Today, there is a growing interest in the area called "green economy" in the world. Undoubtedly, it is a bit late for Azerbaijan, which is in the post-oil era. Interest in the "green economy" should not be a matter of fashion but should have been very important for a country during the period of oil and gas production. The Azerbaijani government is trying to think more about the "green economy" in the post-oil era.

This section, along with economic development for the future of our country, must ensure the health of the environment, the rapid restoration and growth of greenery, the efficient use of water resources and sustainable energy sources. Within this priority [9], the following two goals are envisaged to be effectively achieved in the strategic period: (i) high-quality ecological environment and (ii) green energy space.

One of the main goals of the concept, covering “Environmental protection and ecological issues” in Section 11 of the Development Concept “Azerbaijan 2020: Look into the Future” [10], was to achieve environmentally sustainable socio-economic development. Specifically, it was noted the criteria of which union Azerbaijan will meet in the coming years: "During the period covered by the Concept, the average amount of energy and carbon dioxide used to produce a single GDP in Azerbaijan will be close to the relevant figure for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development."

In fact, during this period, the non-renewable energy sector should have received fewer subsidies from the state budget. Public funds should have been mobilized for the development of alternative energy sources, not for cost-effective structures (SOCAR, AZAL) and sectors. More inflows of private investment into the renewable energy sector were to be encouraged.

The most urgent issue for Azerbaijan had to be related to the scale of emissions during the peak periods of oil production (2004-2013). The carbon tax was not levied on transnational companies. The risks of ecological imbalance were higher. The need to protect the environment was even more important at that time. However, in times of high oil production, we achieved more economic growth. In fact, the balance between economic growth and the ecological balance had to be maintained at that time. Maintaining this balance should have been one of the main goals of the state's oil strategy. But in the post-oil era, we can only talk about the environmental impact of low oil production and increased gas production. In this case, it is too late to talk about maintaining the ecological balance.

An in-depth analysis of the document “Azerbaijan 2030” and its goals seems to be a good document that includes a number of activities. It is as if there were divine intentions and sacred purposes. However, it is impossible not to see the discrepancy between the previous documents (Strategic Roadmaps for the National Economy and Key Sectors of the Economy 2016, “Azerbaijan 2020: Look into the Future” Development Concept 2012) and the current activities. This raises serious doubts that the current document entitled “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio-Economic Development”, unlike other documents adopted in previous years, will have satisfactory results. Because such documents cannot be considered without interconnection and without considering the cause and effect. This is a serious reason for concern about the spirit of the document.

Mohammed Talibli

Sources:

[1]https://president.az/articles/50474

[2]https://president.az/files/future_az.pdf

[3]https://president.az/files/future_az.pdf

[4]https://president.az/files/future_az.pdf

[5]https://report.az/sosial-mudafie/azerbaycanda-orta-omur-uzunlugunun-muddeti-aciqlanib/

[6]http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/latest-human-development-index-ranking

[7]http://www.e-qanun.az/framework/34254

[8]https://president.az/articles/50474

[9]https://president.az/articles/50474

[10]https://president.az/files/future_az.pdf

(Part I)