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If the head of state is a dreamer, it means that the society has sunk. If the head of state behaves as an imam or sheikh, he can be a carrier of the interests of a group with far-reaching religious judgments and beliefs. He cannot mobilize carriers of different values in his aura. If you have a head of state who is a poetically sensitive poet, then you have to think about when the interests of that state will fall under emotions. His views will comfort himself and a group of religious people by expressing their heartfelt words; however, your state will not have a strategic vision. If the head of state focuses his thoughts only on religious doctrines, you should know that neither the world will understand his language nor he will understand the language of the world. As a result, your state interests may be the victim of the emotional interests and sentimental feelings of your head of state.

This way of thinking and approach I have mentioned is clearly felt in the rhetoric of Turkish President Erdoğan. The value of the Turkish lira, one of the elements of the economic downturn in Turkey, has fallen sharply. The Turkish lira, which was 3.4 TL against 1 USD a few months ago, has now risen to 14 TL. As a result, the Turkish national currency has depreciated several times, not by interest. Markets are struggling with the depreciation of the national currency. Uncertainty is growing in the economy. Investors take their "hot" money out of the country. The flow of migrant capital is accelerating. The nature of investments is changing dramatically. Consumers are confused and so on.

In this situation, what should be the text of the speech of the head of state? How to manage expectations? What hopes should he give regarding the future of the economy? What real scenarios should he tell? How should the economic team present the elements of the recession that create the risk of crisis to the public and convey them?

The team with state responsibility and the backbone of statehood must be mobilized for this and make wise decisions. What is Erdoğan doing? By breasting alone, he makes everyone laugh with his speeches in front of the people where he is not competent. In such a situation, instead of showing an economic solution, Erdoğan made an interesting speech at that time as well. “Our Lord says in the Qur'an: ‘We shall certainly test you by afflicting you with fear, hunger, loss of properties and lives and fruits. Give glad tidings, then, to those who remain patient.’,” he recited a verse from the Qur'an.

I remember exactly. I wrote a note about this in 2018 in my economic notes booklet with Erdoğan’s eloquent speech. He then made similar rhetoric, saying, "If they have dollars, we have Allah." The head of state, who has a religious view, should have been reminded of the words "Man take precautions, God disposes."

That same year, Erdoğan’s propaganda reached such a peak that citizens took to the streets and began burning dollar bills. In fact, the blaze was the Turkish economy. Erdoğan tried to relax his conscience with the noise of the crowd. “Pir” (a Muslim saint or holy man) gave the United States a lesson in the resonance of victory and pushed the Turkish economy back a little with his populism. Finally, as they say, warm hearts were defeated by cold heads.

Get cheap loans from the IMF, take no action against paying for imported goods without encouraging domestic production, build a comfortable "concrete" economy with the money of creditors, and then struggle with debt in exchange for expensive dollars. Then justify yourself that America is jealous of us, and so on.

Was it necessary to turn the Turkish economy into an experimental "rabbit" in order to know a certain truth? The obvious truth is that the United States was the America of free people a few years ago, and now it is the America of Americans. You don't have to be pro-American or anti-American to understand this reality. America has a strong economy. One in four of the world's GDPs belongs to the United States. If 60% of the world's trade is done in dollars, 20% in euros, and the remaining 20% in other currencies, then how can your abandonment of the dollar increase the value of the lira? If there is a daily movement of $ 5.1 trillion in the world currency market, then what effect will the exchange of even $ 200 billion of Turkey to the lira have on that market?

There are some well-known realities in the world that can be found in questions, not in concrete answers. Erdoğan needs to find an answer to one of them: I'm not saying if the stone falls on the egg but saying if the egg falls on the stone, will the stone or the egg be crushed?

For many years, Mr. Erdoğan encouraged everyone in brotherly Turkey to be patient. Leaving aside the subjective shortcomings for the negative consequences of the one-man rule, he began to look for objective "grounds". He tried to turn people into tolerant masses, tolerant of all kinds of humiliation, with the recipe of patience, saying "Everything’s going to be okay". However, Turkey needs real "todays", not false "tomorrows" in fairy tales. Warren Buffett, one of the world's richest (according to Forbes estimates, the amount of his liquid asset is $ 100 billion) and one of the world's most intelligent investors, has a thought-provoking idea: "It is better to be sure of a good result than to hope for a perfect result."

 

Mammed Talibli

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