Hyper-puper: Aliyev and Pashinyan save Putin’s face

The Armenia’ use of missile Iskander against Azerbaijan has repeatedly been played up by the media giving cause to sensational revelations of analysts and politicians. It was former Chief of General Staff of Armenia, Movses Akopyan who first admitted the use of Iskandars against Azerbaijan on November 19, 2020.

The point to be emphasized is that in the reviewed period his statement was confirmed neither by Baku nor by Armenia. Giving a fresh impetus to the sensation was Nikol Pashinyan who, on February 23, recognized the fact of Iskandars’ employment with effectiveness of 10%. However, later he disproved this version after a telephone call of Vladimir Putin as saying that he had been misinformed.

On February 26, President Ilham Aliyev diplomatically countered his statement as saying that Azerbaijan found no Iskandars’ use during the war. And finally, all good things come in threes: the ANAMA reported on discovery of Iskandar’s fragments outside Shusha. This time, officials both from Axis Baku-Moscow-Yerevan sewed up their mouths giving way to analysts and journalists

It is worth pointing out that the ANAMA was set up in 1998 under a Presidential decree as an executive government body, and since January 15, 2021 it was reformed into a legal entity subject to public law, and its statements are of para-public and para-authoritative character but not official, national. 

Our analytical review «To be or not to be Iskander?» of March 4 tried to sift the Iskandar question to the bottom. That was explained as being due to the American-Russian confrontation in Europe where Washington has long sought to withdraw Russian Iskandars from NATO borders. In this connection, on August 2, 2019 the Trump administration announced withdrawal its participation with Russia within the framework of INFT. By autumn 2020 the two sides announced the creation of hyper-puper missiles (Trump’s joke) with the difference that new Russian hyper missiles proved be up 5 times from previous ones, exceeding manifold American missiles. On September 19, 2020 on the eve of the Karabakh war he stated that the United States possessed the world’s most powerful weapons refusing to elaborate details. "We have created the mankind’s most powerful weapons. That’s true … I mean to say that we have the world’s formidable weapon but I’ll not uncover its type. You don’t want to know».

On the eve of Biden’s election as US President, President Putin voiced his preparedness to withdraw Iskandars in exchange for the treaty renewal. On October 26, 2020 at the height of fighting Putin made a statement «On additional steps aimed at de-escalation of the situation in Europe in terms of suspension of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles Treaty (INFT)».

The statement said: «Stick with consistent position in line with missile 9М729 requirements of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles Treaty, the Russian Federation is nevertheless ready, in the spirit of good will, to deploy no 9М729 missiles on the European part of country’s territory».

In so doing, he pointed out that Russia would make a move provided a reciprocal concession from the NATO — the bloc must preclude the deployment of earlier INFT-banned weapons in Europe.

In the meanwhile, the USA proclaims its determination to place hyper-missiles near the Russian borders. On March 17 this year, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu warned about symmetric response to the US decision.

Russia will furnish «an adequate answer» if the United States places short and intermediate missiles in Europe, Shoigu said in an interview to Tengrinews agency.  

However, there is no evidence that such a reply is possible.

A reason for growing animosity between the United States and America within the framework of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles Treaty (INFT) became a question of flying range of Iskanders. The USA opines that a flying range of 9M729 missiles-equipped Iskander-M is not 500 km, as Moscow insists, but 5000 km which falls beyond the scope of intermediate range missiles. Russia disagrees with this, since it is unwilling to suspend INFT whereas the United States has developed a superweapon outperforming the Russian one. For Russia, deployment of these missiles on the western flank is totally unacceptable.

Most probably, the point is about the missile topic just as an excuse followed by US serious claims to Russia concerning the redistribution of spheres of influence in the Eurasian zone.   

Note that Iskandar missiles engagement in the course of 44-day war is practically assured, especially among two nuclear superpowers’ intelligence services. It was reported on «Iskandars»’ having been shot down by Israeli rockets in operational service with Azerbaijani army.

«Armenia launched, at least, one ballistic missile of short range «Iskandar» of Russian production against Baku in November during the Karabakh war; however, it was shot down by Azerbaijan, according to a top official (Turkish – Turan) who reported on the incident. In his words, Russia called Armenia to use «Iskandars» and thus force Azerbaijan with its territorial gains to stifle an offensive. «Ballistic missile «Iskandar» was launched by Yerevan to hit Baku several days before the ceasefire. Azerbaijani officials were bothered by the situation. However, anti-missile defense system led by Azerbaijani armed forces and Israeli Barak-8, shot it down», the official said. «Further use of these missiles can increasingly aggravate the situation on the ground. To my thinking, this fact persuaded the leadership of Azerbaijan to stop firing», Middle East Eye reported on March 2, 2021.

According to official Russian and Armenian data, Armenia received four complexes of Iskandar-Э equipped with missiles of 280 km flying range. Note that air-line distance from Russian base in Gumri to Baku is 500 km at the very last. There is well-founded suspicions of Iskandar-M attack which is exceptionally undesirable for Putin today in terms of intensive talks with Americans especially as the latter could insist that missiles 9М729’ flying range is above 500 km and, hence, fall beyond Intermediate Range Treaty.     

It is worth remembering that detection of Iskander fragments outside Shusha after 4 months of the end of the war will, perhaps, save Putin’s face. Note that ANAMA-submitted missile fragments are labeled as 9М723 type. Iskander-Э flying rage is 280 km; Iskander-М - 400 km. That said, it is widely accepted that Iskandar-M was used but with 9М729 missile (flying range above 500 km, as Americans insist) but a missile of lesser flying range. In other words, there is no evidence that it was exactly 9М729 to hit Baku with flying rage of above 500 km. And what is more, the fragments were discovered not outside Baku but Shusha with an air-line distance of 250 km from Gumri. In so doing, Aliyev and Pashinyan save Putin’s face and his negotiation process with Americans.