If you make a mistake this time too…

The announcement by the UN-recognized Prime Minister of Tripoli, Fayez al-Sarraj, that he will resign in October has practically popped the bubble of the Turkish president.

My friend Hüsnü Mahalli, a Syrian journalist and analyst who knows the Middle East and the gulf better than anyone else, points out that he may resign this week without waiting for October.

Fayez al-Sarraj's resignation could jeopardize Turkey's dominance and future plans in both Libya and the Mediterranean. Because it is impossible to predict what Turkey will achieve and what it will lose in agreements or disagreements.

What is known is that a respected diplomat and politician who knows the region very well, former Foreign Minister Yaşar Yakış, was right to warn that "Turkey should not put eggs in the same basket."

But why did Fayez al-Sarraj, who signed several agreements at once with Turkey, which had not abstained from support, resign and create a difficult situation for Ankara? After all, after the agreements signed between the two countries on November 27, 2019, this man was standing obediently in front of President Erdoğan in Istanbul and Ankara, where he was coming almost every day, if we borrow the words of Necmettin Erbakan, who hit the headlines for 40 years in Turkish politics, "as if he was visiting a gas station". What happened suddenly?

After Russian forces killed 57 Turkish soldiers in Idlib on February 27, the "broken bottle" (originally, “parə-parə olan şişə”) (Mahammad Fuzuli) could no longer be affixed again, and there was no cooperation between Turkey and Russia in the region other than a formal patrol service.

Turkey headed to Libya, according to the infrastructure it prepared in the fall, while Russia has been there with Wagner since 2016. With the help of Turkey, the withdrawal of the forces of opposition Haftar, who is a man of both Russia and EU, from Tripoli included the United Arab Emirates in the theorem with "hit-and-run" tactics and Egypt with the presence of ground forces.

The threat of French naval vessels coming face to face with Turkish naval vessels in Libyan waters has increased tensions. Turkey laughed on the wrong side of its mouth and was once again left alone on the road it took with radical clerics; The next alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood did not last too.

Observers of the developments around Libya know that Turkey will have to think twice about the steps it will take after Egypt is included in this theorem in the summer. So, the factor that put Ankara in a difficult position was the indexation of diplomatic steps on an ideological basis.

Such that in the summer of 2012, when the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt, Prime Minister Erdoğan made no secret of the fact that he intended to change the fate of not only Turkey but also the region by taking steps with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and, as he said, to "jointly eliminate the republican regimes that had been brought to these lands by mistake."

However, the Turkish president did not want to recognize General Abdulfattah Sisi, who came to power in a coup d'etat by the Egyptian army on July 3, 2013, after strong protests from some sections of society against the radical religious measures that the Muslim Brotherhood was trying to implement.

Ankara's tough ideological position could jeopardize Turkey's advantage in Libya. The fate of the signed agreements will also be unknown in the event that Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the official Tripoli government, which Turkey has supported by mobilizing all its resources, does not back down from the resignation.

While some commentators are confident that the new government will remain committed to the agreements signed with Turkey, even if al-Sarraj resigns, others claim that the new government, which will be formed as a result of the elections, can set aside the agreements signed with Ankara on November 27, 2019, in which case, Turkey's efforts may be in vain. This shows that Turkey's second "Muslim Brotherhood" move in the region may also be ineffective.

So, despite the fact that Ankara is now ruled by a military dictatorship (although its name was not a "military" dictatorship, it was also a dictatorship in the time of Hosni Mubarak), it has not noticed that the truth that Egypt is still a key country in the region has not changed, as it has been for 45 years. In this case, "What position should Turkey have taken on July 4, 2013?" - What should be the real answer to this question? Should it have rejected the Egyptian military dictatorship altogether, brought its relations with Cairo to zero, or should it continue its relations with Cairo, putting the interests of the state above all else?

Mayis Alizade