“Not bowing and scraping before Ankara”

One year ago, when the S-400 missiles were brought to Ankara, we wrote that it was not a serious matter and that relations with Washington continued as before. Because the most reliable person of Brussels and Washington, General Hulusi Akar, was sitting in the chair of the Minister of Defense.

Although it was announced in June that the air defense missiles would be activated in April next year, the missiles were not activated due to the virus epidemic (I think they would not have been activated even if there was no virus).

Thanks to General Akar's ability to keep the door open with both NATO and the Pentagon, Turkey was able to change the situation in Libya in its favor.

Akar, who has been active in talks with Moscow, as well as in Syria, especially in Idlib, has managed to persuade jihadist groups to remain in Idlib, despite Russia's insistent requirements.

This was what the Pentagon needed. The Putin-Erdoğan meeting in the Kremlin on March 5, after the Turkish army lost 58 servicemen in the region (the official figure was 33) on February 27, was in fact nothing more than a formality. That meeting created a “stalemate” in Ankara-Moscow relations over Idlib, and Turkey suddenly turned its attention to Libya and managed to change the situation in its favor.

Did Russia expect that? The answer "no" seems more logical. The Kremlin's main reason for not expecting such an attack is that almost all government agencies are involved in constitutional changes to keep Vladimir Putin in office until 2036. The second reason is the deteriorating economic situation in Russia.

The sharp confrontation with Turkey in Syria shows that the implementation of the third and fourth phases of the "South Stream" line promised by Ankara behind closed doors will not be possible to a large extent.

In the wake of this, the complete disruption of the Nord Stream-2 project has created major problems in the export of natural gas, which keeps the Russian economy afloat.

Serpil Yılmaz, who is from Sözcü newspaper, wrote that Turkey has started buying natural gas from the United States at a lower price (June 18-19). Or is there not only a resumption of arms trade with the old ally but also the purchase of natural gas behind the scenes of Turkey's dominance in Libya? In this case, isn't it a matter of large-scale squeezing of Russia from the European natural gas market?

Those who follow the details of the process know that the proposal for a Putin-Erdoğan meeting in the Kremlin on March 5 was made by the Turkish president in front of the media; however, Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary for the President of Russia, who violated the rules of protocol, humiliated Turkey by saying, "There are other events in the program of our President on March 5."

On the eve of the meeting, which took place at Mr. Erdoğan’s insistence, the Russian media once again mocked Turkey, saying "Erdoğan is bowing and scraping before Moscow."

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, and Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, were scheduled to arrive in Ankara after Turkey's victory in Libya.

While the plane circled in the sky and returned to Moscow, Sergey Lavrov said, "We learned that Turkey was preparing for an operation in the Libyan city of Sirte, and we did not go to a meeting due to it." So the reason for the cancellation of the two ministers' visit to Ankara while the plane was in the air was Russia's weak position in Libya and this time "Moscow's bowing and scraping before Ankara." The Kremlin did not fit this into its ego because it knows very well how both the foreign media and the public will interpret it. Therefore, the option of not meeting was preferred.

Is it possible for Ankara to maintain this advantage gained in Libya for a long time? Talking to diplomats who know the region very well, they warn Ankara not to "put all the eggs in the same basket."