Pandemic in globalization world

It should be noted that fall in global GDP in 2020is prognosed at 4,9%, for the pandemic coincided with a regular cyclic recession  of the world economy in terms of leap year. In some countries’ joy the IMF increased oil price forecast up to $36,18 and $37,54 per barrel in 2020 and и 2021 accordingly. Analysts believe that many (largely developing) countries will be in no position to restore pre-crisis figures of their GDP in 2021, since the rise may, at best, defray just GDP fall following 2020 results.

It is forecast that EU GDP will fall by 9%, and the US economy reduce by 6%, unemployment in some European countries reach nearly 10%. However, it should be borne in mind that all these forecasts are made disregarding the probability of the second wave of coronavirus where a level of the world economy is likely to go down and mostly affect developing countries.

Note that the world clock operates without interruption: as of 28.06 according J. H. University, there are 10001527  infected and 499,100 deceased from COVID-19. The United States is at the head of confirmed cases with its more than 2,5 million infected; next follows Brazil - 1,3 million, Russia – 600, 000; India – 528, 000 and Great Britain - above 311, 000. As for Azerbaijan, there are 534 new cases of contamination, 304 recovered, 5 died.

The said period in Azerbaijan was marked by 16,424 infected, 198 died, 9026 – recovered; 7200 continue their treatment at special regime hospitals. Note that  468,967 persons were tested in the country tests were carried on to reveal COVID-19 (less than 5%).

It has to b kept I mind that nearly in all post-Soviet countries more than half of expenses fall on food; rise in expenses is accompanied by rise in prices while the state aid to the population gives rise to incessant discontent. It remains unrequited how long such an aid can be rendered in terms of pandemic continuation, to say nothing about prognosticated «second wave».

A closer look at Germany as a country to fight the pandemic most successfully reveals, in opinion of country’s leading researchers and virologist, that «we are expected to face a year of quarantine restrictions pending salutary vaccine». In so doing, forecasts say that summer will suppress the virus; however, its regular outbreak will fall on winter. Pessimists remind that there are not yet vaccines against HIV, hepatitis C, malaria and syphilis, hence, expectations are not promising in respect of coronavirus panacea. It’d be appropriate to hope that mankind will work out a collective immunity against the virus to take many years.

In turn, German mathematics warn against protracted pandemic termination, for none of scenarios they have modeled make it possible to expect crisis completion.

Of interest is quotation as follows: «The vaccination of Soviet times proved to be useful, first of all, for elderly Russians. Inoculation against tuberculosis of bionosis was compulsory in the reviewed period … Some studies say that this vaccination helps immune system to oppose coronavirus more effectively» – H. Dumbeck, К. Hebel. One virus – many diagnoses. – Der Spiegel, 24.06.

It is evident at any rate: mankind proved unprepared to the pandemic that gave rise to innumerable questions of survival strategy. One of them is consider epidemiologists or economists? – a question is asked in К. Hulwerschaide’s article «Saving human lives or welfare?» (05.06, Süddeutsche Zeitung ). «It is obvious that expectations on "the weaker restrictions, the lower economic damage" won’t work as evidenced by states like Japan and Sweden. A Germany’s example is indicative that he who saves lives acts not only humanely. He increases confidence and trust, these two factors that are much more important for restoration of economic conjecture than any reduction of taxes, any programs aimed at decreasing bureaucracy and theoretical debates on economic freedom». The authors refers  to the experience of removing the Spanish influenza (1918-1920) which demonstrated that towns with the severest restrictions ran through the least losses both in public health and economy. He warned that the second wave of the pandemic will be a catastrophe for economy.

To judge by rashness the countries are «opened» after quarantine, these advices are unlikely to be adopted until a next catastrophe breaks out. It is obvious that this process is led by unprecedented conflict of interests between world’s leading economics of the United States and China. Unprecedented growth of deficit and essential fall in dollar in terms of tendency toward negative values of US domestic savings are prognosticated for the United States as the most pandemic affected country. Also, the process is taking its course in terms of two alarming tendencies: production capital of America is increasingly aging and used up. Suffice it to say, seven weeks of the pandemic have been marked by 33 million jobless. Proceeding from the budget department of US Congress, S. Rauch notes that the country is expected to face an unprecedented federal budget deficit to make up 14% GDP on the average in 2020-2021.

The same situation is typical for China: lack of reforms in ten major sectors of economy resulted in increased dependence upon incessant rise in debts and growth of stagnation in private sector. «Owing to the pandemic, the country GDP fell by 6,8% following the results of the first three months of the year – this is the first quarterly GDP reduction in the newest Chinese history. First ever over 25 years China declined from publishing target figures of economy growth rates», C. Rood and D. Rosen wrote in their article «China at the economic crossroads» - Project Syndicate (США, 24.06.).

It is characteristic that many analysts indicate «super-light speed» rates of pandemic developments where decision prove to belated always.

About futuristics that come true in our eyes. In the first turn, the point here is about an article titled «Geopolitics in the post-coronavirus period» published in Le Temps (04.05) authored by Mohammad Mahmud Uld Mohammad, scientific head of Geneva Center of Security Policy, professor of Geneva Institute of International Relations and Development. The author singles out four main tendencies in the political world: strengthening of etatism with authoritarian tendencies; deepening of world militarization; normalization of supervision practice in respect of citizens and start of counter-globalization. 

Scared of crises and pandemic, societies transfer their rights to states that frequently resort to «culture of war» in their domestic and foreign activity.

It should be added that «supervision of increasingly questioned global standard is expected to add a parameter on necessity to widely spread usefulness argument. It becomes increasingly difficult to retrace and control practices used in emergence situations and without parliamentary consultations – this applies to China, Russia, Israel and South Korea that imposed surveillance over their citizens, digital control over observance of movement restrictions, identification of persons in the name of sacred safety».

And finally, intensification of de-globalization caused by new restrictions on mutual relationship that, in author’s view, generates not only economic but existentialist vulnerability in societies and leads to strengthening of the logic of international disunity and national protectionism. When adjusted for the above, the author detects some positive aspects: the universal crisis will help us understand not only our world better but our consumer’s attitude to the so-called «Orwellization of geopolitics».

In the meantime, two assessments are being formed worldwide. Under one of them, the world of democracy proved to be more effective in countering the pandemic than authoritarian regimes as evidenced by practical measures taken by China, Russia, Iran, etc. Under The Washington Post (27.02.), state mass media of Russia and China are deliberately spreading panic among the world public «through filling information space with lie and cutting it off for all voices but one».

Under the second assessment, there took shape deviation of democracy from the height of is spreading in the pre-pandemic period, as well as the growth of anti-liberal and anti-globalist sentiments leading to the national reticence, rise in nationalism and xenophobia that automatically lead to the consolidation of authoritarian regimes and their growth worldwide. Note these sentiments covered western countries in terms of migration growth and erosion of national identity.

The two assessments cited above are illustrative that the pandemic has contributed to the polarization of political world, confrontation of ideologies that can no longer co-exist peacefully. The most radical observers put forward an alternative: the struggle against the pandemic would lead to the fall of authoritarian regimes or countries of democracy would start stage-by-stage departure from neo-liberal ideology to undermine foundations of capitalistic system.

It should be added that no balanced forecasts are felt so far in the crisis pandemic epoch but this is not to say that they are unlikely to show themselves in the nearest future.