Problems - Increased protests and increased police control

During these 30 years of restoration of our independence, numerous political, legal, economic, social, and humanitarian problems awaiting solutions remain unresolved. Although the lower, middle, and upper echelons of the government have changed, there has been no progress in addressing these issues, and the traditional management system has not changed.

As the government's total control over the press and information systems diminishes, new tendencies are emerging in society. Especially with the spread of social networks, the government's monopoly in the information and propaganda environment is collapsing. In addition to the fact that the problems in each area are more pronounced, local protests against these problems are becoming more intense.

The restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic without complete elimination of the severe social consequences of the crisis of 2015 had an even more negative impact on the economy. Although the government has implemented some social programs, in fact, the situation of the population has not changed for the better. Over the past year, people's lives have become much more difficult, and tensions in society have risen significantly.

The war with Armenia, which began on September 27, has partially reduced the general socio-psychological tension in society. Even, after the war, there was a certain belief that there would be positive progress towards the effectiveness of governance. It drew attention that there were many who hoped problems to be solved.

However, this stage began to end quicker than expected. Local protests have already taken place across the country. People are trying to protest in different forms to demand justice, to restore their violated rights. Authorities appear determined to prevent protests. In all kinds of protests, there are clashes between citizens and police and very strong police intervention.

Who organizes the protests and in what form?

Since November 2019, it has not been possible to hold mass protests organized by the opposition. The government effectively banned the right to freedom of assembly. Organized violent methods prevent any attempts of the opposition to uncoordinated actions. Opposition activists are under strict control and pressure with administrative and criminal prosecutions.

Attempts by various social groups to hold coordinated or uncoordinated protests are also not seen. In general, in recent years, there has been no activity of institutionalized social groups in society. Although very small group and retail campaigns are held regularly, it is difficult to say that effective results have been achieved.

There has also been no public response to the calls of immigrant critical bloggers from abroad to protest. Protests organized from abroad do not mobilize the population. There is little interest in organizers who have scattered goals, make unsystematic calls, and do not have the opportunity to influence specific socio-political groups within the country. At the same time, the scale of dissatisfaction has not risen to a level that will overcome fear and hesitation.

The most widespread protests across the country are mostly individual. There are many people who have to wait for days, weeks, months, or even years to enjoy their rights. Sometimes we see people with the same problems protesting together but they have no common goals.

The government can easily separate these groups with individual promises. Although the coverage of such protests on social media and social networks does not pose a direct threat to the government, it does cause some psychological tension. As long as these small protests do not spread on social media, the government's crackdown is not seen. However, from the moment it became public, the police intervened severely.

In particular, we can note the protests by Sovetsky residents whose houses were demolished and who could not receive fair compensation, protests of citizens who were deceived by private companies and whose money was misappropriated, protests of persons receiving sickness pensions for deprivation of this right, problems faced by war veterans in assigning the degree of disability, as well as local protests by health workers who are unable to receive their salaries timely.

The most unfortunate situation is the problems with the judicial system. It is the activity of law enforcement agencies that most dissatisfies citizens and provokes protests. The bodies that totally violate the rights and freedoms of the country's citizens are the bodies that are obliged to protect them by law. In particular, an atmosphere of complete impunity prevails for law-breaking bodies and persons.

Respectively, the trials mentioned as “Nardaran case”, “Ganja case”, “Tovuz case”, “Tartar case”, “Karabakh prisoners” are of this kind. Many people claim that their children and relatives have been imprisoned innocently, that they have been subjected to degrading treatment, that they have been tortured to death, and that they have been maimed.

Unfortunately, neither a fair investigation is conducted on law enforcement officers with reasonable suspicion of committing the most serious crime, nor is their actions given a legal assessment.

In fact, legal and socially oriented local protests in front of various government agencies have not yet yielded positive results.

Finally, there are many questions in society about why individual and collective struggle does not work. Our analysis shows that the authorities discourage individuals from protesting with various "promises" and threats. And they take a hard line with the collective struggle.

The practice of formation of collective political will based on collectively obtained results is the most worrying factor for the government. The government is resisting with all its resources for the prevention of the formation of a collective will and the failure of the collective will to achieve a positive result.

Many dissatisfied people consider individual protests to be safer than collective protests to solve their problems. They do not risk losing their health and freedom in case they cannot solve their problems.

Nasimi Mammadli