Rubicon 10 September

President Lukashenko showed himself three times after the elections. Dissolved and reappointed the government, held a meeting of the Security Council and on August 21 paid a visit to the Dzerzhinsky agricultural plant.

His strategy is aimed at gradually tightening the screws and restoring the former full control over the Belarusian society.

An analysis of Lukashenko's speech at the Security Council on August 19 suggests that he intends to secure the final victory of 80%, to limit the activities of the opposition, to minimize at this stage the relations of Belarusians with Europe. He did not consistently and confusedly talk about the reforms, which suggests that he is not yet ready for them.

For example:

On the opposition: the creation of a coordination council by the opposition is an attempt to seize power with all the ensuing consequences.

On reforms: any changes must be carried out within the framework of legislation and the legal framework, otherwise it will lead to dire consequences for the country.

About Europe: the leaderships of Western countries that get together and discuss the situation in Belarus should first of all pay attention to problematic issues in their countries.

On the government: the current government in Belarus has someone to rely on. We will not flinch and will go our way.

Lukashenko's caution, on the one hand, and his demonstratively confident tough messages to society and the world community testify to his readiness to continue to act from a position of strength. But still, his threats, not backed up by real actions, indicate that he is aware of the continuing protest public sentiments and fears a break in the fragile lull.

It is possible that Lukashenko is aware that his opponents are gaining strength for a second wave of protests. It can begin both before September 10, when Lukashenko's current presidential powers, which he was given in the 2015 elections, expire, or immediately after that date.

The opposition hopes that after September 10 Lukashenko will become illegitimate, as his election is not recognized by the countries of the European Union, the USA, Canada, etc.

President Alexander Lukashenko will lose his powers on September 10, Anna Krasulina, a representative of the headquarters of presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, said on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel on August 18.

“Power should be peacefully transferred to the people. He won. It is obvious. In the West, everyone says that there were no real elections in Belarus. On September 10, Lukashenko's legitimacy will say goodbye  to everyone, Krasulina said.

On Friday, August 21 Tikhanovskaya gave the first press conference after leaving the country. She named the condition for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Belarus: “The elections must be held anew - freely, honestly and transparently. The people of Belarus demand this, and they must be heard ”

The presidential candidate also stated that she supports peaceful protests and hopes for a dialogue with the authorities.

“I really hope and I believe that the leadership will hear its people. We have always been told that the president loves his country and loves his people.   What he sees now makes it clear that people want change. I really hope that common sense prevails and the people will be heard. And they will enter into dialogue and the very new transparent and fair elections will take place,” said Tikhanovskaya.