Taking a step back at the same time from several attempts

We have repeatedly written that the Idlib problem is a "wall-hung rifle" for both Turkey and Russia and that if it is not lowered from the wall, it will be opened in due course. The Sochi meeting three years ago determined that the time had come: both strictly and with a time limit of about 20 days.

However, as the results of these three years have not resulted in the cleansing of Idlib from jihadist groups by killing time just like spreading flour on the rope, heavy bombardment by the Russian air force and the expected operations of Assad's ground forces brought with them a new meeting in Sochi. Not only the absence of a press conference after the September 29 meeting but also the absence of a traditional press release indicates that Moscow's demands are short and specific: Idlib should be completely emptied, the process in Libya should not be interfered with, jihadists sent to the Caucasus during the military operations in Karabakh (Russia's claim) should be completely withdrawn from the region.

It is likely that the Turkish President's S-400 message from New York, the Mersin-Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which he mentioned before the meeting in Sochi, and the "TurkStream" projects are not able to influence Moscow's specific demands.

At the farewell ceremony, the fact that Mr. Erdoğan insisted that he would not give up the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine in exchange for Vladimir Putin's offer of a Sputnik V vaccine to his Turkish counterpart was for the sake of the forced smiles in front of Bocharov Ruchey's residence. It is unlikely that Ankara will persuade the groups, which it describes as "moderate" (there is also a parliamentary decision that the organization is a "terrorist"), to leave Idlib. Because the current government considers this issue, above all, as an ideological issue. From a geostrategic point of view, despite the ceasefire agreement reached in the Kremlin on March 6, 2020, the fact that Idlib was not cleared of jihadist forces means that the road to the port of Latakia is in danger, which is home to a Russian naval base.

While the long-term closure of the country's lifeblood, the M-4 highway, will not be tolerated by Syria, like Russia, Turkey will not be able to accept jihadist groups who will leave the region: This is one of the most serious problems for Ankara. There is no question that the government did not anticipate that the process would be a series, that Ankara would be required to withdraw from all parts of Syria after Idlib, and that retreating to its borders after so many moves would be undesirable for political Islam.

 This will have an impact on Turkey's policy in other regions, especially in the Caucasus. That is, if the end of the road with the motto of "conquest" is to retreat into the borders, then there are two ways: 1) to find solace in some African countries by providing serious financial assistance under the motto of "Muslim Brotherhood"; 2) To turn to Central Asia with a slight increase in the feeling of "Turkism" (it is not known whether there will be a response).

Behind-the-scenes developments in domestic politics are becoming more concrete, and this concretization indicates that all parties are already smelling of the early election atmosphere. After the leader of the second party of the opposition alliance (İYİ Party), Meral Akşener, announced that she would not run for president, saying "I will be prime minister", the emerging developments showed that the behind-the-scenes dialogue with the Kurdish party will be conducted by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), while the dialogue with the right, center-right, and conservative parties will be conducted by the İYİ Party. When Akşener made it clear that the main goal of the opposition bloc was to return to the parliamentary system, the Future Party (former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu) and the DEVA Party (former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan), which split from the AKP, seemed to be very interested in it; Temel Karamollaoğlu's Felicity Party, which has so far supported the opposition bloc in many ways, though not ideologically, also showed unwavering support for the union to return to a parliamentary system.

The strange thing is that pro-government journalists and writers, who realized that it would be very difficult for the current ruling union to get 50% of the vote in the changed form of government 3.5 years ago, also began to practice the "parliamentary system".

It may sound ironic to others but I personally find it very normal. Because this situation shows that the political system is alive.

Like the will of the people... 

Mayis Alizade