Tavush – Tavuz: what is it all about?

It must be acknowledged that the analysis of the latest mass media and analytical publications makes it possible to script possible versions that have possibly affected the spate of armed border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

To be fair, the scenario in question is described as follows: power structures of the two countries pressured by the pandemic and numerous social issues agreed re-orientate a vector of social outrage by means of armed clashed on a border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two opposing scenarios say that it was an initiative of another party to start, and the second party gladly joined it. Some analysts of this version explain a limited number of victims as being due to the scenario above, and even more, they accuse not Armenians of deaths of Azerbaijani top officers on their own territory?!

However, world developments afford no grounds to explain the clashes as being due solely to the «fixed» scenario.

It is important to note that US incessant attempts to cut off gas pipelines of Russia -: Nord Stream -2 (Europe) and then South Stream offshore gas pipelines (Turkey – Europe) came from a Pompeo-voiced sanction policy aimed at punishing project-involved states and organizations.

It’d be appropriate to recall that the South Stream has been in effect since January 2020 to deliver gas not only to Turkey but Europe as well (1,3 billion cub m). By the time Turkey has essentially reduced purchases of the Russian gas and replaced them by deliveries of the Azerbaijani gas. According to some reports (22.07.20,Turan),  South Stream offshore gas pipelines will be out of work due to overhauls – from 27 July to 10 August, and deliveries of the Russian gas to Turkey through another gas pipeline Blue Stream have fully been suspended since May this year. It is also reported that in January-June 2020 Azerbaijan exported to Turkey 6,36 billion cub m of gas, i. e.  23% of total gas purchases and thus took the lead among other suppliers.

It is supposed that combat operations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are waged for a high ground allowing parties involved to harm oil and gas deliveries communication, as well as Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. A question arises: Are gas deliveries from Azerbaijan so important for Moscow to take firm steps? Yes, they are, especially as Turkmenistan (ranked 4 in world gas reserves) joins the Azerbaijani mainline. However, Ashgabat may easily change its mind even in case of short-run failure of Azerbaijani communications. We have already seen that Azerbaijan has again used Novorossiysk mainline, so it’s not just the diversification of delivery routes in case of emergency.

On the other hand, the fierce battle for the said high ground enables Azerbaijan to harm gas communications («Gazprom Armenia» reported on gas network damage in Tavush) delivering the Russian gas to Armenia across the Georgian territory, the fact that indirectly involves Georgia in the conflict. It is no mere coincidence that Georgia allowed to transfer weapons supplied to Armenia by Serbia. Georgia’s rate of response to deny this information revealed Tbilisi’s fear of being involved, indirectly though, in the conflict of the neighboring countries with Russia behind.

Another scenario of the world political arena goes back to long-standing struggle for influence of Turkey that availed of contradictions between the United States and Russia to enhance its prestige. It has to be kept in mind that rapprochement with Russia removed no controversies over Syria and Libya. Even worse, the situation became worse after Ankara supported Baku in the issue of Karabakh.

On the other hand, relations between Ankara and Washington are known to have warmed up. In particular, the parties decided to coordinate their activities in the matter of Libya; the United States backed down on the issue of pushing Kurdish armed units from Turkish borders. There are some grounds to believe that the USA and Turkey sided with developments on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This solidarity manifested itself in debates at the Russian Security Council following which Moscow apparently declined from using CSTO; Ankara’s uncompromising stand on the conflict; failure of attempts to deprive Baku of US military aid; first official recognition of Azerbaijan as a country with occupied territory.

In spite of the fact that Russia gets down to large-scale exercises «Caucasus-2020», an impression is that this country has to retreat in the conflict (no CSTO mechanism has been triggered, аnd what’s more, demands to cease combat operations proved not quite pressing as was the case in 2016). Interestingly, the same sluggish response came from the USA and the EU.

Another scenario deals with hydrocarbon prices and, hence, oil and gas pipelines. Of interest is the fact that after long-standing instability the oil prices began growing to reach $44 per barrel (22.07). Account has to taken of the fact that a mechanism of oil price is successfully regulated by the United States, including its potentiality to bring prices down. At present, Washington is seeking to take the same position in respect of price setting and thus disadvantage Moscow.

There is no getting away from scenarios put forward by Armenian mass media, except for search for the guilty its unambiguous answer and somewhat paradoxical comparison of today’s clashes with those of April 2016. To increase the role of «today’s victories» and enhanced level of battle readiness of the Armenian army, the authors openly confess that «the war of 2016» was lost even despite the fact that earlier statements of this sort were rare.

As a whole, the Armenian press emanates from its political preconceptions based on obviously pro-Pashinyan or opposition predilections. In the meanwhile, Armenian mass media attitude to Russia remains unclear, especially as Moscow declined from supporting Armenia on all matters at the crucial moment. Sometimes Yerevan’s pressures on Moscow acquire phantasmal forms meant to simultaneously frighten and mollify Russia. In order to substantiate my statement, let’s quote an extract from the report of Lragir columnist Akop Badalyan who insists that in the course of military operation Armenia not only achieved its regional military-political objectives but also reaffirmed independence of Armenia as «a junction point in the US-China world order» - «Aliyev fetched a first strong blow: the world order is being established (Lragir, Armenia, 13.07.20). Beyond any doubt, a reader is obsessed with this analytics. But that’s just the beginning. A next stunning «revelation» is meant to demonstrate that from now on the world is exceptionally ruled by Yerevan:

«This is the first blow of Armenia and the new world order on Baku. Counterblow of the Armenia party followed straight after meetings of the Foreign Minister with Ambassadors of the United States and China. It is important to note that the United States and China are marking borders of the new world order to put an end to the Russian-Turkish strategic partnership. This happens on the eve of the hundredth anniversary of the Armenian-Turkish treaties. Standing up to the opponent in the April war, the Armenian army built out the sovereignty margin in the course of Velvet Revolution demonstrating that Russian-Turkish treaties cannot be freshened up at the expense of Armenia».

However, even pro-governmental circles are well aware of limits to criticize Russia. A contrived ghost story should demonstrate Moscow that under current circumstances «Armenia matters most to Russia, up to the level of existentiality, for Armenia is irreplaceable variant for preservation of Russia’s role in Caucasus within the framework of US and China-outlined world order». From now on Yerevan has an opportunity to pay Moscow all dues! It was harsh criticism of the «anti-Russian wave» by Defense Minister David Tonoyan that led to visits of US and Chinese Ambassadors to his department. The agenda of the visits specified that «the question is not about dissolution of the Armenian-Russian relations; instead, it is targeted to strengthen sovereignty of Armenia. In this context, the Armenian-Russian relations in the Caucasus testify to the predictability of the Russian policy in terms of the new world order». What a lot of rubbish!

Added to this can be that some political experts (Alexander Iskandaryan) focus on the fact that there is no officially recognized border between the two countries. The point is that no demarcation and delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have been made after the dissolution of the USSR. Just like the case of the Indian-Chinese conflict, there is just a conventional line of contact and trench wars for strategic positions. In this respect military expert Leonid Nersesyan claimed that «the Armenian party delivered a counterattack and seized a high ground due to pained reaction of Azerbaijan and its active 2 days efforts to return the ground». The above-mentioned indirectly revealed an initiator of clashes.

An opposition camp that always backed the Armenian-Russian alliance (Artashes Gegamyan) points out that their May prognosis has come true: with the approval of the United States and the European Union Azerbaijan will unleash a new war against Nagorno Karabakh. A question arises: Maybe, coming ahead of Azerbaijan, Yerevan was the first to unleash a border war and thus take the heat off its position in Karabakh?! That much is clear with the EU: in its Eastern partnership policy document in the post 2020 period the European Union singled out territorial integrity, integrity and sovereignty without mentioning the right of peoples to self-determination! The author involuntarily makes the right conclusion: main addresses of the document are Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Nagorno Karabakh.

As for the United States, arguments sharply fuelled after its refusal to deprive Azerbaijan of military aid and its consent to recognize a part f its territory occupied.

At any rate, there are obvious changes toward the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Then again, don’t hold your breath that these changes are inuring to the benefit of Azerbaijan …