The first, but not last

Displacement of the minister occurred without an announcement procedure. Before the dismissal, Mammadov, as if nothing had happened, held meetings and gave directions. Such form of dismissal is a sign of mistrust, and it is also a signal to all members of the team about the readiness for such a denouement. This has already happened with the ministers of the three departments - national security, communications, transport. Over the past three years, Mammadov became the fourth minister, dismissed without prior notice. There were no other options for political overthrow.

Two versions of the minister's bias are voiced in the press:

- Theft and export to the offshore $ 4 billion.

- Failure of the state plan to collect taxes.

Versions seem doubtful, since Mammadov operated more with the assets of the Family than with his own, and even though with difficulty, he coped with the obligations to fill the treasury with taxes.

Mammadov belongs to the same number of ministers who were appointed by President Heydar Aliyev. He took up this post under the patronage of the then head of the customs of Kemaladdin Heydarov and worked for some time under his patronage. Subsequently, he was reassigned directly to President Ilham Aliyev, and his work did not provoke criticism at government meetings held by the head of state.

Education Minister Mikail Jabbarov, who was appointed instead of Fazil Mammadov, refers to the generation of officials which are under the patronage of Mehriban Aliyeva (Pashayeva), the wife of the President. He managed the architectural and historical reserve Icheri Sheher, which is under the direct unofficial subordination of the UNESCO Ambassador M. Aliyeva.

More plausible is our version of the team's re-election. And for this there are grounds. It should be taken into account that the change of the minister of taxes, which belongs to the power bloc, occurred less than a year before the presidential elections, which could lead Mehriban Aliyeva to the ascent of the presidential Olympus. Almost for 13 years she heads the most influential Fund in the country, named in honor of President Heydar Aliyev, whom the official ideology has elevated to the rank of the Father of the nation. Since October 2016, as a result of the referendum on changes in the constitution, the first lady officially became the second person in the state, having occupied the newly made post of first vice-president. The mere fact of establishing the institution of vice-presidency and the appointment of the president's spouse for this post speaks of the extraordinary character of the transition period and high distrust of Ilham Aliyev to his old entourage. The First Vice-President has already begun to form her own apparatus, which includes the generation of officials of the new post-Soviet school.

In this context, it is necessary to expect the dismissal of the next ministers and, first of all, the power bloc, which will have to be replaced by the persons who are under the influence of the first vice-president. This change of scenery is necessary to conduct the election process in the regime necessary for her and for the president. In general, the backbone of the vice-president's team will have to be formed before the presidential elections, and then it remains only to remove the word vice from the word combination vice-president.