The Tikhanovskaya phenomenon

The well-known blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky was not allowed to register his candidacy. Moreover, during the collection of signatures in favor of his wife Svetlana, who nominated in his place, Tikhanovsky was arrested. In the office of Belgazprombank, where candidate Viktor Babariko set up the campaign headquarters, searches were carried out, he and many of his former employees were arrested. On July 14, the Central Election Commission did not register the leading opposition candidates - ex-banker Viktor Babariko and former head of the High-Tech Park (HTP) Valery Tsepkalo. Their wives joined the camp of Tikhanovsky's wife, Svetlana, who is now considered the only real competitor to the current president.

The authorities allow holding rallies in support of Tikhanovskaya far from the center of the capital of Belarus. During the pickets in support of Lukashenka's rivals, according to official data, 270 people were detained. The EU is demanding the immediate release of the detainees and ensuring political competition in the elections.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya can be compared with world leaders who won the elections, who had not previously  be known as politicians and who did not show themselves at all - Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelensky, Nikol Pashinyan. The fourth, who can be attributed to the same category, is Vladimir Putin.

The attitude of Russia towards S. Tikhanovskaya is twofold. On the one hand, the Kremlin knows the incumbent President Lukashenko, who formally supports the Union State with Russia. However, he also makes insulting speeches against Russia, arrested 32 Russian citizens - mercenaries from a private military organization (PMO "Wagner"). It is even possible to extradite some of the arrested to the Ukrainian authorities, in which the militants fought on the side of the separatists.

The Kremlin's revenge can be called an interview published in the Moscow edition of "Lenta.ru", in which the president's main rival, S. Tikhanovskaya, reveals her minimum program and explains the reasons for the popular hatred of Lukashenko. The presidential candidate says:

- I am better than Lukashenka, because I will leave this post when required. I will not stay at this post long. With a return to the previous Constitution (in the original version of 1994), I will give people their constitutional rights. Belarusians will receive freedom of speech, the right to choose, the term of the president's office will be limited. Therefore, it will definitely be better - in our country, there will be changes that people have been waiting for a very, very long time.

(Belarusians) were silent, we were obedient, but this year everything has changed, believe me. Over the past year, people have woken up. Many factors influenced the return of self-awareness and self-esteem to people. We feel like a people who come to help each other. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, we citizens raised money for masks for doctors.

When the arrests began, our headquarters offered help to pay the fines. When a family lost its breadwinner, husband or father, who worked but was detained; and the family was left without a livelihood, our people helped with money. They began to feel that they were protected by other people and not by the state. People began to come to help each other; such things did not happen before. This phenomenon did not exist before.

We have a very high demand for changes; we are tired of living under the same government, which is rude instead of defending its people. Our current president could humanly say that we are not capable of fighting COVID-19 because we have an unstable economic situation. However, no - we are told that there is not any coronavirus, “Do you see it? I do not see - that means it does not exist."  The authorities call the masks muzzles. When an elderly man died, they began to tell us from the TV screens that he was to blame, why he went for a walk if he had so many diseases...

We have heard enough of all rudeness from the screens. You must not do this with your people! A president who loves his people will never say that. There was not a single word of support - "Go and treat yourselves with tractors,” said Tikhanovskaya revealing the key moments of her campaign.

The general opinion of experts is that Tikhanovskaya will be highly likely to win if Lukashenko allows the ballots to be counted without falsification.

Alexander Klaskovsky, a political observer for Belorusskiye Novosti, noted, ”Lukashenko is failing in public relations, holding meetings organized with the help of administrative resources in "labor collectives", while in large and small cities "his unexpected rival Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is everywhere greeted as a world pop star ".

"Tikhanovskaya conquers the audience precisely with her human story: they say, I'm more used to frying cutlets, but I went to fight for my husband; we had to hide our children abroad, my son sent me a text message, he is afraid for me, etc. She plays strongly on the feeling of trampled justice, discontent disadvantaged people; in 1994, when the first presidential elections were held, candidate Lukashenko did the same, "Klaskouski noted.

The absence of signs of a split in the Belarusian ruling elite, primarily in the power bloc, suggests that further, alas, everything will follow the scenario that has been tried out more than once. Agitprop will be fully involved in the glorification of Alexander Lukashenko and his achievements. Election commissions will count the votes "as needed", the CEC will draw for Lukashenko over 80% of votes, and the rest of the candidates will receive generously within 5%, writes in the article dw.com.

“There is no split in the elite, the state apparatus, and law enforcement agencies work like clockwork. Lukashenko does not yet see Tikhanovskaya as a rival, does not see a danger in her. He believes that if the Belarusians face a dilemma - vote for a housewife or vote for a wise, big political the experience of a politician, then even people skeptical about him, faced with such a dilemma, will vote for him,” political scientist Valery Karbalevich believes.