The US ready to resume talks on Iran. Tehran is evading

The United States is ready, without putting forward preconditions, to resume participation in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, stated the US President Joe Biden during an online speech held on February 19 at the Munich Security Conference.

Two days earlier, the United States withdrew from the UN a petition by the administration of former President Donald Trump to renew sanctions against Iran.

Despite the seeming sensationalism of these messages, there is nothing unexpected in them. During his election campaign, newly elected President Joe Biden has repeatedly declared his interest in negotiations with Iran under the auspices of the European Union and with the participation of the "six" of international mediators, and promised under the new US administration to return to the Iranian nuclear deal.

However, Washington will agree to this, not before Tehran returns to fulfill its obligations, which it, gradually, began to refuse after in 2018 the United States, withdrew from the agreement and imposed sanctions against Iran. Not so long ago (February 7), in an interview with CBS television, answering the question - "Will the President of the United States take the first step and lift the sanctions against Iran in order to return Tehran to negotiations on the JCAP", Biden replied - "No."

It is clear that Iran is categorically not happy with this approach of President Biden. In response, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posted a message on Twitter with the hashtag "final word" stating that Washington could not put conditions on Tehran on the progress of the nuclear deal.

"Iran is the party that has the right to set conditions in the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, since it acted in accordance with obligations - not the United States, not the three European countries (Britain, France, Germany), which trampled all obligations," Khamenei wrote.

He also noted that Washington must lift the sanctions "not in words and on paper, but in deeds" if it wants Iran to return to the deal.

Tehran believes that if the obligations under the JCAP were violated not by Iran, but by the United States (Donald Trump withdrew from the JCAP and introduced new sanctions against Iran over the past four years), then the United States should first lift its sanctions under the JCAP, and the sanctions of the last four years and fully return to their obligations.

In a word, the positions of the parties are fundamentally different and the question is - who should return to their obligations under the JCAP first, Washington or Tehran?  acquired particular importance.

The solution would be to return to the agreement gradually. Thus, the United States can gradually lift sanctions, and Iran, in response to each lifting of restrictions, return to the implementation of the next clause of the agreement. However, such a plan requires negotiations, and Tehran is no longer willing to do this.

Conservatives in Iran, which have grown significantly over the years of Trump pressure, demand that the government not show weakness towards the West. In their opinion, the United States should return to the JCAP immediately, without any preconditions. However, it does not work. Biden may admit that it was a mistake to withdraw from the nuclear deal under Trump, but in his position, accepting Tehran's demands would mean shooting himself in the foot.

The problem is exacerbated by the deadline, which Iranian politicians constantly remind of. On December 1 in Iran, the conservative wing managed to push through a law that set the date for the US to return to the nuclear deal on February 21. If by this date Washington does not return to the JCAP, then Tehran, in accordance with this law, should not allow IAEA observers to visit its nuclear facilities.

It must be said that Biden's pre-election declarations of a commitment to the nuclear deal could have given rise to false ideas in Tehran that he is ready to return to an agreement immediately after taking office. Therefore, members of the new administration had to debunk this myth.

As early as January 19, the director of US National Intelligence Avril Haynes announced that the possible return of the United States to the JCAP was not a matter of the near future. Subsequently, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Presidential Press Secretary Jen Psaki made the same statements.

Subsequently, Washington strictly followed this line. On February 11, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that he had not yet seen any gestures of goodwill from the US President to return to the nuclear deal.

In his speeches, Biden, showing concern about the development of Iran's nuclear program, at the same time makes it clear that February 21 is by no means a point of no return.

Biden's position is quite predictable and understandable. The new president must demonstrate new achievements. A return to what was under Barack Obama can hardly be called a success. The terms of the deal concluded by the Obama administration with Iran in 2015 led to tensions and deterioration in relations with key allies in the Middle East - Israel and Saudi Arabia, seriously damaging US policy in the Middle East. Therefore, it is obvious that how the United States and Iran will build relations and negotiate in the next six months will be very important. They will determine not only the further fate of the JCAP, but also the place of Iran in the world energy market (in the event of the lifting of sanctions), as well as the relationship between the United States and the anti-Iranian coalition led by Israel and Saudi Arabia.

So far, having come up with loud at first glance, but, in fact, insignificant initiatives, the United States has managed to "put the ball on the field of Iran," putting the top leadership of this country in an extremely uncomfortable position.

Washington's statement that it will not put forward preconditions for the start of a dialogue between the Five and Tehran looks like a mockery. After all, the agreements were torn apart by the Americans, having imposed suffocating sanctions on Iran. In this case, Iran has every right to demand their cancellation before starting negotiations. The situation, to be sure, is tragicomic - it turns out that Iran should respond to the United States in the same way - i.e. refuse to put forward preconditions, otherwise it will look incorrect.

The withdrawal from the UN of a petition for the renewal of sanctions against Iran, which Washington applied to the UN in early May 2020 in order to demonstrate to Israel and the Gulf countries its intransigence towards Iran against the background of the "deal of the century" promoted by President Donald Trump (a plan for the Middle East settlement), is presented as a gesture of goodwill. Although initially it was obvious that the likelihood of support for this document by members of the organization is more than doubtful.

Now, Iran's turn. It can be said right away that it is unlikely to hinder radically the activities of the IAEA - this will strike if possible to resolve the issue with the JCAP and may even lead to sabotage at one of the Iranian nuclear facilities, as it happened before, or to a direct military attack on them. However, he will continue to raise the stakes, threatening to bring the uranium enrichment process operational.

Commenting on the proposal of Josef Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, to hold an unofficial meeting of the participants in the nuclear deal and the United States, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said in an interview with the IRIB Broadcasting Corporation last Saturday: “We are studying the proposal of Josep Borrell to hold an unofficial meetings in the “4 + 1” format (Russia, China, Germany, Great Britain and France) with the USA and Iran, we also consult with our partners, including Russia and China, and will respond to this proposal in the future. "

He added, "No meeting is required for the US to return to the nuclear agreement, the only way to do this is to lift the sanctions."

This confirms once again that, despite the severity of the sanctions, Iran's position is unshakable - it will be faithful to its game of raising stakes in the fight to lift restrictions and will not rush to meet to return the United States to a nuclear agreement.