The Winner Takes It All

Following a virtual meeting in Germany on Friday, May 7, Special envoys and special representatives of countries for the Afghan peace process (EU, NATO, USA, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Norway and France) called on the radical Islamic Taliban to end the annual spring offensive in order to achieve peace in Afghanistan.

“We strongly condemn the ongoing violence in Afghanistan, for which the Taliban are largely responsible. We demand that all parties take immediate and necessary measures to reduce the violence and, in particular, avoid civilian casualties in order to create an environment conducive to a political agreement ", said a joint statement published on the website of the US Department of State.

The document emphasizes that the Taliban must end the undeclared spring offensive, refrain from attacks against civilians and immediately stop all attacks near hospitals, schools, universities, mosques and other public places. The Taliban must end the targeted assassinations of civil society leaders, clerics, media workers, doctors, justice officials and civilians, the statement said.

The signatories to the statement called on the parties to the conflict in Afghanistan to take steps to promote peace, which can only be achieved through a comprehensive political negotiated settlement of Afghans, and emphasizes that any government created by force "will pose a threat to regional stability."

The envoys also called on the warring parties to “accelerate the pace of peace negotiations”.  They called the “Taliban” largely responsible for the continued violence in the war-torn country and demanded that all parties “take immediate steps to reduce the violence” and “create an environment promoting achieving a political settlement"; "immediately, without preconditions, resume substantive negotiations on the future of Afghanistan."

The document also states that "the withdrawal process (US - Ed.) Should not serve as an excuse for the suspension of the peace process by the Taliban, and political negotiations should be continued and conducted in good faith and in earnest."

The special envoys promised to provide Afghanistan with substantial international assistance, linking it, however, with the outcome documents of the 2020 Geneva conference, which provides for "the preservation and respect of the rights of all Afghans, including women and minorities."

They stated that the Taliban and the Kabul administration “must fulfill their obligations to combat terrorism, including preventing al-Qaeda, IS (Islamic State) and other terrorist groups and individuals from using the territory of Afghanistan to threaten or breaches of the security of any other country."

In addition, the document contains an appeal to Afghanistan's neighboring countries "to continue supporting the Afghan people and to make a constructive contribution to a lasting peace settlement and sustainable economic development in the interests of all."

The ominous silence of the Taliban

Although the Taliban have not yet announced the start of the spring offensive, it looks like they have started it. In recent weeks, there has been a sharp increase in violence in Afghanistan – from April 15 to 29, about 120 security officials, 65 civilians and more than 300 Taliban fighters were killed in the country, and hundreds were injured.

On April 30, in the city of Puli-Alam in the eastern province of Logar, a mined truck drove into a guesthouse. As a result of the explosion and the collapse of the building, at least 26 people died and more than 110 were injured. Among the victims is a child and several women. The building housed students who had come to enroll in a local university. No group claimed responsibility for the explosion. On May 6, the Movement's militants captured the Burka area in Baghlan province in northern Afghanistan.

The current intensification of the movement is probably because according to the agreement between the Taliban and Washington on February 29, 2020 in Doha (Qatar), America was supposed to withdraw its troops by May 1. However, because of various circumstances, including the delay in inter-Afghan negotiations and the change of administration in the United States, America postponed the date of the final withdrawal from May to September 11. This angered the Taliban, who refused to take part in any international conferences on Afghanistan until foreign troops leave the territory of the IRA and made it clear that they reserve the right to start hostilities.

Because of this, by the way, the Istanbul conference under the auspices of the UN, which was supposed to be held in April, was postponed.

Meanwhile, the process of withdrawing US and NATO troops from Afghanistan is gaining momentum. Afghan Defense Minister Yassin Ziyaya said it began on May 1. According to him, foreign forces are vacating the bases; it is expected that they will be handed over to the Afghan side in the near future. US troops are on their way to the base in Bagram, from where they will later return home by air. The last batch of military, according to the minister, was supposed to leave the base in Helmand province on Sunday, May 2.

The Taliban are adamant - no peace talks as long as foreign troops are in Afghan territory. This is the basis for fears that the withdrawal of US and NATO troops civil war will flare up with renewed vigor with a completely unpredictable outcome, since the hope that the government army will be able to contain the Taliban onslaught is weak.

By the way, it does not in any way show his attitude to the next international declaration, but it is possible that the Movement will not compromise even here, without even announcing it aloud.

However, the possibility that the Taliban will resume attacks on the US and NATO military forces against the background of the actual withdrawal of troops looks doubtful, nevertheless, the Pentagon decided to play it safe and temporarily increase the number of troops in Afghanistan to ensure security. On April 27, representatives of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM or CENTCOM) announced the transfer of B-52 strategic bombers and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems to the region, which were delivered from Kuwait. An additional 650 rangers were deployed. In addition, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, remains under Central Command's operational responsibility, which includes the Middle East, Central Asia and parts of South Asia. 

The transfer of B-52 bombers to Afghanistan is more likely to intimidate the Taliban. The use of strategic aircraft against the Taliban, who operate in scattered small mobile units, is akin to firing cannons at sparrows.

In addition, US troops travel in Afghanistan by air, they will also return home by plane - therefore, the level of threats to the Americans during the withdrawal is clearly exaggerated.

The lives of Afghans who collaborated with the Americans in Afghanistan (worked with them as contractors) will be in real danger after the foreign troops leave the country. The Taliban reasonably consider them collaborators - people who knowingly, voluntarily and deliberately collaborated with the enemy, in his interests and to the detriment of their country. According to some reports, the number of such people in Afghanistan today reaches 18,000. They asked European countries or the United States to grant them asylum, since they were threatened by the Taliban and are confident that if they return, they will die.  

Washington's expectations

The United States, like other countries participating in the peace process, is aware of what Afghanistan may face after the withdrawal of its troops. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in an interview with CNN that one of the possible scenarios is the start of a civil war and the seizure of power by the Taliban. He stressed that no one is interested in this and the United States will continue to support Kabul after the withdrawal of the contingent. However, according to him, now the main responsibility for national reconciliation and for the establishment of stability will fall on the Afghans themselves and on the countries of the region, who must decide whether they will use their influence on the warring parties.

 The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, also does not exclude the start of a civil war in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US and NATO troops.

However, the US special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, exudes optimism and does not believe that after the withdrawal of troops the Taliban will seize power, since in this case they will again face isolation and international opposition.

Pakistan promises to put pressure

Recently, Islamabad has been increasingly demonstrating support for a peaceful political solution to the Afghan problem. At a meeting of the foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan, which was held in Istanbul instead of the planned international conference, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi called on the Taliban to reaffirm their commitment to achieving peace through negotiations. “The stakes are very high. If there is no agreement, then the fear of returning to the nineties, the fear that Afghanistan is entering a new civil war, hangs over our heads. And this is the last thing Pakistan wants, which has already paid a huge price due to Afghan instability,” Qureshi said.

Last week, the Pakistani delegation, which paid a two-day visit to Kabul, assured the Afghan side that they would make every effort to bring the Taliban back to the negotiating table by September. The Pakistanis have promised the Afghan President's Special Representative for Reconciliation in the region, Omar Daudzai, and National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib, that Islamabad will mobilize all its resources to persuade the Taliban to attend the Istanbul summit when a new conference date is announced. The Pakistani delegation also pledged to make efforts to persuade the Taliban to ceasefire and reduce the level of violence.

Obviously, the Taliban's inconsistency and inflexibility began to irritate Pakistan and, as The News International reported, citing insiders, Islamabad began to pressure the Taliban to return to the negotiatings. Senior Pakistani security officials made it clear to the Taliban leadership that the refusal to participate in the Istanbul conference was a big blow to the Afghan peace process, and if the Taliban does not show flexibility, it may face tough actions from Islamabad.

The pressure that international partners and Pakistan began to exert on the Taliban led the Taliban to contact several Afghan politicians, sending them letters urging them to start direct negotiations.

The head of the Supreme Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah received such a letter. It is possible that the Taliban's initiative is aimed at separating the official Afghan politicians. The same opinion is held in Abdullah's office.

However, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who also received a message from the Taliban, unlike Abdullah, believes that direct negotiations can help move the settlement forward.

Who else from the legal Afghan politicians received an invitation from the Taliban to direct negotiations is still unknown.

On Sunday, May 2, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad wrote on Twitter about a meeting with “his good friend,” Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov. What the talks were about is not advertised, the release said about "the need to urgently support progress in the process of a comprehensive political settlement that will put an end to more than 40 years of war in Afghanistan."

Peace perspectives

Achieving peace in Afghanistan after the Americans leave will be extremely difficult, if not practically impossible. Despite the fact that everyone here is talking about peace, no one wants to give up ambitions and claims, neither the Taliban, nor Kabul. This is the whole tragedy of this country.

This fundamental contradiction is tearing the country apart and making it extremely difficult to achieve peace. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the war here has been feeding itself for a long time - and this is the main reason for its duration: resources are decreasing, and there is a fierce struggle for financial flows - be it participation in business, "cutting" foreign aid (directed to reconstruction), or drug production.

The American presence enabled the Kabul regime to obtain stable sources of income. The Taliban consider this unfair because they consider themselves the true spokesman for the aspirations of the people. Therefore, it should be the main beneficiary.

If to add to all this the streams of blood shed here, it becomes clear that in such conditions it is difficult to talk about national reconciliation. Here we can only talk about a fundamental choice - either "we" or "they".  The famous single of the Swedish ABBA band sings, "The Winner Takes It All". More precisely, the whole of Afghanistan.

Therefore, there are not many chances that the warring parties in Afghanistan will be able to reach a consensus. However, they still exist, and if these chances are used, then Afghanistan can be saved. The salvation of this country lies in the fact that after the withdrawal of foreign troops it becomes the zone of responsibility of the countries of the region - Pakistan, China and ... oddly enough, Uzbekistan.

On Sunday, May 2, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad posted a status on his Twitter page about a meeting with “his good friend,” Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov. He did not disclose what the talks were about, but said about "the need to urgently support progress in the process of a comprehensive political settlement, which will put an end to more than 40 years of war in Afghanistan." 

Most likely, the talk was about the possible involvement of Tashkent in the inter-Afghan negotiations, which is unlikely to arouse Moscow's delight.

Four countries - Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan and Turkey are interested in creating one of the three trans-Eurasian economic corridors within the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt project initiated by Beijing (China - Central and Western Asia - Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea) really want stability in Afghanistan. Perhaps this is precisely why Zalmay Khalilzad's optimism is connected.

These countries can really contribute to the pacification of Afghanistan; help this country to end devastation and poverty. For other external players, Afghanistan is nothing more than an arena of confrontation between their geopolitical interests.