Variable balances and urgent measures

While welcoming the killing of 47 terrorists in a military operation organized by the Turkish Armed Forces on the other side of the border up to 40 kilometers to prevent the terrorist organization from gaining strength in northern Iraq, the killing of 13 members of the security forces (intelligence, military, and police) held hostage by the terrorist organization for 5-6 years has clearly shown that the threat continues.

The killing of 13 hostages by a terrorist organization, which was hit hard by a large-scale military operation in the region in July last year, has turned eyes back to northern Iraq again. We say "again" because Turkey has taken decisive steps since December 2019 to prevent the terrorist organization from nesting in the northeastern part of Syria, despite occasional disagreements with the United States, Turkey managed to have the PYD / YPG terrorist organization, a continuation of the PKK in Syria, retreated 20 kilometers to the other side from the Turkish border. However, the organization of the PYD / YPG on the other side of the border never escaped from the attention of Ankara.

While the appointment of McGurk, who has been in close contact with that group in the region for years, by President Biden as US Special Representative for Syria Engagement raises concerns in Ankara to the highest level, the killing of 13 security and public order members held hostage in northern Iraq has prompted the government to think seriously in several ways. Because the stones are moving again in the region, there is no need to be an astrologer to see that if the established balances are damaged, terrorist organizations will be strengthened and put into circulation.

It should be noted that the Tehran regime, fearing the outbreak of the democratic movement in South Azerbaijan, will never hesitate to support all separatist activities from PKK to ASALA in these processes. Given that the main goal of separatist terror against Turkey, both inside and outside the borders, is to first establish a state and ensure its direct connection with the Armenian state and then its integration, from now on, one of Ankara's main tasks will be to closely monitor the developments in Armenia, the northern part of its borders. As there is no doubt that the PKK terrorist organization, which is a central figure in terrorist activities against Turkey, has been organized in Armenia for years, everyone can see that the Yezidis have been fighting against both Turkey and Azerbaijan for the last 6-7 years and have not hidden their intention to continue fighting.

According to Turkish intelligence, terrorists in northern Iraq are turning to Armenia as they are hit hard. While it is expected that the Turkish army will conduct large-scale operations not only in northern Iraq but also in the north-eastern part of Syria in the near future, it is no secret that the members of the terrorist organization will look for a more comfortable place in Armenia, which was devastated by Azerbaijan's victory, and even try to ensure their security, albeit temporarily, by moving to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

The most experienced security and law enforcement experts we've conversed since last summer, such as former Minister of Internal Affairs, Sadettin Tantan, former chief of the General Staff's intelligence service, Colonel-General Ismail Hakki Pekin, keep these scenarios on the agenda and talk about the need for "Turkish and Azerbaijani intelligence to join forces as much as possible and conduct joint operations against terrorism" to prevent the terrorist organization from taking advantage of the situation in the region.

Against the plans of not only the PKK terrorist organization but also the ASALA terrorist organization to send their people to the region, some experts also raise the need for Azerbaijan to establish an organization to use "irregular operation" (unofficial) methods. Reminding that members of the terrorist organization, which has been hit hard in northern Iraq, will also use Iranian territory to cross into Armenia, which is in a chaotic situation, security and law enforcement experts also draw attention to the importance of opening the Zangazur corridor as soon as possible.

The change in the regional balance will put new plans in place through terrorist organizations. Measures must be taken...

Mayis Alizade