When the tension only increases…

After a long period of silence, some members of the partisan media finally began to share information about the results of public opinion polls conducted by the government. For example, according to a columnist of Yeni Şafak newspaper who has unconditionally supported Mr. Erdoğan since the early 1990s, a 50% barrier to being elected president may or may not be passed. The current rating of the ruling party and its chairman has been 40%, sometimes 1% above, sometimes 1% below.

Interestingly, other opinion polls conducted by the ruling party gave the same result. Therefore, the semantics of this 40% must be properly analyzed. Two years ago, the ruling party raised the issue of lowering the "presidential election barrier" to 40%; however, when it saw that even its own electorate did not welcome it, it removed this idea from the agenda. With the barrier being lowered to 40%, "legitimacy" would always be the subject of debate because the president-elect would not represent the will of more than half of the electorate; therefore, even today, Turkey's most experienced politician, Mr. Erdoğan, cannot accept this.

The second issue His Majesty's 40% created for the association is the parliamentary system. In the event of a return to that system, the AKP can regain power alone with 40% of the vote or take over the role of the largest party in the bipartisan coalition. Therefore, the stabilization of the current rating of Turkey's 19-year-old ruling party and its leader by the partisan media at around 40% can also be considered an echo of a wish. Because it is very difficult for the ruling party to raise its rating above this in the current situation. Therefore, the 40% rating is actually presented to the public as a center of attraction and aims to seduce other players in the political market. In other words, "our door is open to any player who can put 10% + 1 vote on 40%".

As the country approaches the election every day (we cannot say "elections" because the parliamentary election is likely to be held early), the ruling party will always conduct its training around a 40% rating. Going to the polls in alliance with the MHP continues to cause more and more hesitation, which is why brainstorming on the electoral system and even the constitution remains valid. The opposition bloc, while maintaining its integrity, continues its attacks from two sides in a planned and purposeful manner:

1) The leader of the main opposition party is already taking steps as the most realistic candidate for power;

2) The leader of the second party of the opposition bloc is taking it upon herself to consolidate the remaining parties more strongly around this bloc. The ruling party looks at the leader's mouth, unable to overcome the sluggishness. Apart from President Erdoğan’s efforts, the party leadership and regional organizations are not active: the ruling party's "policy of escalating tensions through the use of religious sentiments" is being pursued by the Directorate of Religious Affairs instead of party leaders. Although there is no doubt that the same policy will continue after the death of 87-year-old Oğuzhan Asiltürk, upon whom high hopes have been pinned in this area, the question of who will take over this function is still unclear.

In foreign policy, several issues simultaneously put pressure on the country. At the forefront of this is Russia's growing pressure to expel radical jihadist groups based in Syria's Idlib region such that Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, no longer needs to hide.

In the framework of relations with Russia, the issue of purchasing the next part of the S-400 air defense system, which has been under pressure from the West for 2.5 years, is also on the agenda. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's offer to resolve the issue within the Alliance this time does not mean that Washington will give up its pressure.

Everyone is interested in how Idlib and S-400 will be resolved and Ankara will be free from pressure. However, as we stated in our previous article, at least until the election, we should not think that President Erdoğan will bow to these pressures and step back from his position. One of the simplest reasons for this is that any step back will not be welcomed by a section of the electorate voting for the AKP and will affect the rating; the second reason is the possibility that the opposition will use it against the government on the eve of the election.

We should not expect Mr. Erdoğan to step back until the next election, as both options will be to the detriment of the ruling party.

Did you say a meeting with Syrian dictator Assad?

The realization of this also depends on miracles.

The relative increase in interest in South Azerbaijan is relieving... 

Mayis Alizade