There are reasons to expect an imitation of the negotiation process by Armenia

On May 2, protest actions in Yerevan continued, the movement against the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is gaining mass character. On May 1, Armenian clergymen took part in it. Protesters stay on the streets at night, in tents. The organizers of the protests are blocking the streets, there are more than a dozen detained by the police. The protesters say they will not go home until they achieve their goal - the resignation of the team led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Among the  movement participants are the former director of the National Security Service of Armenia Artur Vanetsyan and former presidents Serzh Sargsyan, Robert Kocharyan.

An Armenian blogger reports from Khankendi that there is a lull in Nagorno Karabakh (NK) due to the departure of activists to Yerevan to participate in rallies.

The oppositionists do not stop  because Pashinyan did not fulfill his promise to start the work of the joint Azerbaijani-Armenian commission at the end of April. The actions also continue, despite the successful, according to the leader of the Karabakh separatists Arayik Harutyunyan, the meeting in Yerevan between Pashinyan and Harutyunyan.

The anti-Pashinyan coalition is not satisfied with the changed, new principles of Yerevan's Karabakh policy. After Pashinyan's trip to Moscow and meeting with President Putin, the program of official Yerevan looks like this:

- the decisive vote on the settlement of the Karabakh problem belongs to NK and its people,

- no “secret” plan can be discussed at the negotiating table,

- it cannot be implemented "behind the back" of the residents of NK.

A. Harutyunyan thanked the Prime Minister of Armenia for discussing with the NK leadership all the topics and issues that are raised during the negotiations, but added that it could not be otherwise:

“It is impossible for a document to be [signed] that will be rejected by the people of Artsakh. We all understand this, we also realize that in this sense we have a long political struggle ahead of us.”

According to Arayik Harutyunyan, recently, with the mediation of Russian peacekeepers, the security situation has stabilized, which makes it possible to discuss socio-economic programs:

“If there is no one in Artsakh, then it becomes meaningless to talk about security and political struggle. Therefore, demographic, socio-economic programs are once again becoming important,” he said.

Pashinyan said that he is in constant daily contact with Harutyunyan. He explained his understanding of the peace agenda with Azerbaijan: “This is not an agenda of defeat at all. This is an agenda for overcoming the horrors of war, post-war difficulties, ensuring the security of the people, their rights, and the future.”

Political scientist Tigran Grigoryan states the consensus on the status of NK that was formed at the meeting between Pashinyan and Harutyunyan following the meeting between Pashinyan and Putin. “There must be peace. The peace agenda has a number of components - the process of unblocking communications in the region, the delimitation and demarcation of borders with Azerbaijan, and, as a result, possibly the signing of a document. But when it comes to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, then the decisive word should be with its authorities and people. Russia is not interested in any cardinal changes in the issue of status, that is, in the fact that the parties come to a final settlement - in favor of one side or another.”

Baku is closely following the events in Yerevan. Member of the Milli Majlis Rasim Musabekov shared his ironic attitude to the possibility of an Armenian revenge over Azerbaijan on FB:

“According to visual observations of TV reports from the scene, the number of participants at the Sunday, “decisive”, rally, despite the delivery of supporters from the regions, the personal participation of Kocharyan and Sargsyan themselves, did not exceed several thousand people. Although a lot of money was pumped into the preparation of the action and everything was technically staged at the highest level, however, it was not possible to ignite even the paid participants of the gathering with incendiary speeches and slogans. Pashinyan collected dozens of times more citizens for his actions. And it's not about the special organizational and oratory skills of the current ruler of Armenia and his supporters. In Yerevan and in the provinces, the population is worried about real everyday problems, such as rising prices, low incomes, unemployment, etc. Few people want to send their sons to a new war. And least of all, ordinary Armenians want the return to power of corrupt officials and bandits from the rejected Karabakh clan.”

The former director of the Center for Analytical Research under the presidential administration, Farhad Mammadov, divides the Armenian position into "before Moscow and after Moscow." He writes on FB: “Over the past 24 hours, it was the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Secretary of the Security Council who allowed themselves to make provocative comments on the statements of the President of Azerbaijan, which confirm that Irevan chose the path to disrupt the agreements. The response of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry surprised with its consistency, it could and should have been tougher, with double trolling ...

Armenia followed last year's path: agreement, internal political crisis, argumentation - impossibility to make a decision, change of position, refusal to make decisions... this time Russia was replaced by the EU as a mediator...

This should be a lesson for the EU. Although, the Europeans have a guilt complex towards the Armenians - it was precisely because of their activities during the First World War that the Armenians were used against Turkey. Yes, and Armenia is not the first time throwing the Europeans: in 2013 they refused to sign the Association Agreement. I have no idea who should act as a mediator next time so that Baku agrees to negotiations.

In the next couple of weeks, meetings of representatives of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels, a meeting of representatives of Turkey and Armenia in Vienna, and a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and ... Russia on the sidelines of the CIS Foreign Ministers Council are announced. The meeting in Brussels will determine in what direction the process will go, since it was after this meeting that the leaders met in Brussels, where agreements were reached that were not implemented on time. That is, if the format of personal representatives does not produce results, then what is the point of continuing it?!

In Vienna, the Armenian side will once again hear from Turkey the main condition for normalization - to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and only then expect something from Turkey.

The meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers + Lavrov should give impetus to the trilateral format...

Thus, the EU has become a witness to the inconsistency of the Armenian leadership... It is very important for Azerbaijan to show Brussels who accepts obligations and does not fulfill them.”

In Armenia, the prime minister and the opposition see Russian aggression against Ukraine and the new circumstances brought about by the war as opportunities for anti-Azerbaijani maneuver. I.Aliyev at the ADA University on April 30 declared unconditional support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, actually condemning Russia, which had been supplying weapons to the separatists throughout the 44-day war.

On April 29, the Governor of Armenian Syunik, Robert Ghukasyan, received the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Armenia, Abbas Badakhshan Zohuri.

Armenpress reported, the main topic of the meeting was the opening of the Iranian consulate in Kafan (as the Armenians call Zangezur). Ambassador Zohuri recalled Iran's position regarding the inviolability of Armenia's internationally recognized borders and said that all countries should respect it. “For us, statements about communication channels regarding corridors are unacceptable, we believe that Armenia should preserve its territorial integrity.”

New circumstances give Armenians new hopes for refusing to fulfill all the points of the tripartite agreement of November 9-10, 2020. This can be seen from the actions of the Armenian army, which fired at Azerbaijani positions on May 1 with machine guns and grenade launchers (statement by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry).

On March 31, President I. Aliyev, receiving a delegation led by Polish Foreign Minister - OSCE Chairman-in-Office Zbigniew Rau, said that he hoped for a productive meeting with Pashinyan, organized by EU President Charles Michel. However, the events in Yerevan give grounds for pessimism. Yerevan has 28 years of experience in simulating the negotiation process, and everything suggests that this experience will be applied by Pashinyan. –0—