Post-War Reflections: Obstacles and Prospects for Lasting Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Four years have passed since the 44-day war, which ended Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories, fundamentally altering the balance of power and reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. While negotiations are ongoing, a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive.

The brief but intense conflict concluded with a Russia-brokered ceasefire on November 10, 2020, allowing Azerbaijan to regain control over territories lost in the early 1990s. This truce also introduced Russian peacekeepers to monitor the ceasefire and maintain regional stability. However, the arrangement only partially addressed core issues, leaving both countries in a state of tense uncertainty.

Several key events have shaped the trajectory of the conflict since the ceasefire. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a one-day military operation to return the remaining areas of Nagorno-Karabakh under its control. This swift offensive led to the dissolution of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the exodus of more than 70,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia. In April 2024, Russian peacekeepers began withdrawing from Nagorno-Karabakh ahead of their initially planned departure in 2025, marking a significant shift in the region’s security dynamics. Since then, Armenia and Azerbaijan have initiated border demarcation, installing the first border marker in May 2024—a step toward clarifying boundaries but sparking protests in Armenia over perceived territorial concessions.

Despite progress, several issues hinder a peace agreement. Azerbaijan claims, not without reason, that the Constitution of Armenia contains territorial claims to its lands, considering this as an obstacle to peace. Specifically, Armenia's constitutional recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia remains a sensitive point. Armenia, citing domestic opposition and legal complexities, is unwilling to amend this clause until 2027. Armenian citizens have expressed dissatisfaction with concessions, perceiving them as a loss of ancestral lands. Additionally, both countries seek guarantees against future military actions. Armenia demands security assurances for its population, while Azerbaijan insists on recognition of its territorial integrity without foreign intervention.

The peace process has also been shaped by varying approaches from Moscow, Washington, and Paris. Russia’s traditional mediating influence has waned due to its focus on the Ukraine conflict and strained relations with Armenia. The early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers further diminished its role. The U.S. has encouraged direct negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitating several rounds of talks, though its involvement has been limited to dialogue support rather than imposing solutions. France has taken a dual stance, supporting Armenia while calling for a swift peace agreement to underscore regional stability. French officials have urged both sides to finalize an agreement ahead of major international events such as the COP29 climate conference.

To expedite a peace treaty, Armenia would need to amend its constitution, removing provisions perceived as territorial claims, addressing one of Azerbaijan’s primary concerns. Both countries must formally recognize each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity to establish a foundation for normalized relations. Mechanisms to prevent future military actions, potentially through international guarantees, could build mutual trust. Engaging neutral international mediators may help overcome differences and offer impartial perspectives to foster compromise. Governments should also unfreeze “civil diplomacy” and involve civil society in the peace process, enhancing public support and addressing grassroots concerns, thus increasing the legitimacy and durability of any agreement.

Achieving lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan requires addressing deeply rooted issues through sustained dialogue and international support. Obstacles remain, yet continued reconciliation efforts hold promise for enduring stability in the South Caucasus.