Azerbaijani Scenario for Georgia

The EU's High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission issued a joint statement regarding the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia. The document, published by the European External Action Service (EEAS), underscores the need to address election shortcomings and enhance transparency to build trust in Georgia’s democratic process. The essence of the document indicates that the elections in Georgia took place, and it is necessary to promptly address the shortcomings and bring clarity to establish trust in the electoral process.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili's call not to recognize the elections due to alleged violations was largely ignored, reflecting her waning influence. Approaching the end of her term, the president, elected on October 28, 2018, will be replaced by an indirectly elected figure by the end of the year. This shift follows a 2017 constitutional amendment that reduced presidential powers, making the 2018 election the last direct vote for this office. The upcoming election will involve 300 members of the Electoral College, equally comprising parliamentarians and regional delegates. Given Georgian Dream’s (GD) dominance, this setup nearly ensures that the largely symbolic presidency remains aligned with GD.

Why Did "Georgian Dream" Win?

The victory of Georgian Dream can be attributed to a fragmented opposition unable to unite under a common message, leader, or vision for the country. This division weakened the opposition’s position, despite GD facing criticism for its pro-Russian stance, perceived distancing from the EU, and withdrawal of support for Ukraine, including the controversial adoption of the "foreign agents" law. While these actions alienated some voters, the opposition's lack of unity and inability to present a credible alternative undermined its standing. This fragmentation also dampened Western support, as its disorganized approach led potential international backers to hesitate on supporting an unclear future.

The Predictability of Georgian Dream

For international stakeholders, GD represents stability, predictability, and governance in a complex region. Business interests in Georgia, a critical transit route for energy and trade, demand reliable management. This stability, even at the expense of democratic values, aligns with the interests of major powers, making GD a safer choice for investors and international partners despite democratic setbacks. According to some experts, GD’s dominance stems from its strategic alignment with regional powers while maintaining sufficient domestic support.

Growing Hopes for Restoring Territorial Integrity

In recent years, especially following the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Georgia has quietly aligned with Russia’s interests in the post-Soviet space and the Caucasus. This move is partly fueled by hopes of restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity, particularly regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Azerbaijan’s successful reclamation of its territories has inspired optimism in Georgia, and some Georgian officials have speculated that a similar outcome might be possible. Consensus on Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity among mediators from the U.S., Europe, and Russia encouraged GD's measured approach, mirroring Ilham Aliyev’s policy. GD's balanced stance, focused on diplomatic engagement rather than confrontation, is viewed by supporters as the optimal path toward reclaiming these territories. Over the past year, GD has strengthened public sentiment by emphasizing a vision of peaceful reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, resonating with an electorate long awaiting the prospect of territorial unity.

Traditional Values

Georgia’s conservative values play a significant role in GD’s appeal. While the country is predominantly Christian, it possesses a deeply traditional, Caucasian character. GD’s vocal opposition to "LGBT propaganda" secured its position among conservative voters concerned about the perceived influence of the West on social norms. According to the World Values Survey, Georgia ranks low in tolerance toward LGBT communities, aligning GD with this conservative segment. Emphasizing cultural preservation and family values, GD has solidified support among these voters by positioning itself as a defender of Georgian traditions against external influence.

Economic Factors

Georgia’s economy, based on a free-market model with significant contributions from small and medium-sized enterprises, remains crucial in shaping electoral support. In 2023, Georgia’s GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year, largely driven by gains in the ICT sector, as reported by the National Statistics Office, Sakstat, on March 20, 2024. GDP reached 80.25 billion lari ($30.54 billion), a 10.1% increase from the previous year, with GDP per capita also rising from $6,731 to $8,210, highlighting the country's economic progress.

The strengthening of the Georgian lari to 2.71 per dollar, bolstered by remittances from Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, contributed to this economic growth. Trade with Russia remains substantial: 54% of Georgia's exports of mineral and spring water and wine are directed there. Russia is Georgia’s second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $2.4 billion, and serves as the country's primary fuel supplier. Russian tourism also saw a boom, with 1.18 million Russian tourists visiting Georgia in 2023, a 31.1% increase from the previous year. Russian tourists accounted for 23.2% of all foreign visitors, a figure expected to grow after Russia introduced a visa-free regime for Georgians last summer.

Overall, Georgian Dream's strategy leverages both economic indicators and a commitment to traditional values, reinforced by international pragmatism. While Georgia's path mirrors elements of Azerbaijan's approach, significant challenges remain. Georgia’s balancing act between regional stability and Western alliances will be crucial as it seeks to maintain internal unity and manage complex international relations in pursuit of the longstanding Georgian electorate’s dream of a united country.