Azerbaijani Scenario for Georgia

For decades, the late Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia, Ilia II, remained one of the most influential figures in the country — a religious leader whose authority extended far beyond the church and into the fragile political and social architecture of the South Caucasus.

The process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, launched after a meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Washington in August 2025, is continuing in gradual steps.

In the early phase of the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, the countries of the South Caucasus have found themselves in a familiar but increasingly fragile position: close enough to feel the consequences of the conflict, yet too vulnerable to take sides.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the country’s new constitution should not contain a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence because the document’s call for the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia is “built on the logic of conflict.”